AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Falls Below Average

Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks fell in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, optimism and neutral sentiment increased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 2.3 percentage points to 40.8%. Bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 37.5% for the 26th time in 27 weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 6.4 percentage points to 35.4%. Neutral sentiment is above its historical average of 31.5% for the third time in eight weeks. Neutral sentiment was last higher on September 14, 2023 (36.4%).

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 8.7 percentage points to 23.8%. Pessimism is below its historical average of 31.0% for the first time in four weeks.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 11.0 percentage points to 17.0%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the first time in four weeks.

This week’s special question asked AAII members what they think about the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged.

Here is how they responded:

• It was the right decision: 76.9%
• They should have raised rates: 10.4%
• They should have cut rates: 5.4%
• Not sure/no opinion: 7.3%

See more Sentiment Survey results.