August AAII Asset Allocation Survey: Investors Prefer Equities and Funds Over Cash

BARRY J from TX posted over 3 years ago:

I follow the AAII Asset Allocation surveys and the AAII Sentiment surveys. What I want to know is how well are allocations tracking sentiments. The question I want answered is, how well do members act on their sentiments? But the current format of reporting just monthly changes as a stream of independent points provides very little useful information (unless you have a great memory). Monthly reports of both surveys do have data points for historical comparisons and MOM changes, but no trend lines. I think the monthly reports for both surveys would be much more useful if they reported the data with graphs showing a MOM trend line data for the last year (or so) overlaid on the Historical trend line. This would be similar to the approach market analysts use 50-day and 200-day moving average lines as visualizations of how current market performance data points relate to the longer term market support levels (the lows) and resistance levels (the highs). Analysts can the space between support and resistance lines “channels.” They help investors visualize how DOD prices relate to recent highs and lows. Some analysis use these data points as “signals” to anticipate precipitous market changes. A related but separate request is I would love to see a graph of the AAII Sentiment Survey monthly data trends overlaid to the AAII Allocation monthly data trends. This would help members judge how well Allocation trends “fit” Sentiments trends who would be enabled to compare how well changes in allocations reflect changes in sentiment. In 1969, when Bill Bain was a still a Boston Consulting Group, he presented a graph created for BCG’s client Union Carbide. It showed –on a single graph (that’s the beauty of it) -- how Union could reinvest resources in poor performing divisions (low ROI assets) in other division (high ROI assets) to increase market share and create growth. After the presentation, Bain called that one slide “the one million dollar slide.” That graph is now world famous as the Growth-Share Matrix and is still used by every consulting company and taught in every MBA program. (This account comes from ”Lords of Strategy,” Kiechel, 2010, Chapter 4.) That graph sounds a lot like my ask. I am asking if AAII can provide one graph that show how Sentiment trends reflect portfolio Allocations across asset classes. In other words, how well are our fellow members “walking the talk”? Any chances, Charles?