AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Falls

Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks decreased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, both optimism and neutral sentiment increased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 5.6 percentage points to 44.6%. Bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 37.5% for the 31st time in 32 weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 0.7 percentage points to 29.7%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the eighth time in 13 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 6.3 percentage points to 25.7%. Bearish sentiment is below its historical average of 31.0% for the fifth time in nine weeks.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 11.9 percentage points to 18.9%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the sixth consecutive week.

This week’s special question asked AAII members which factor is most influencing their six-month outlook for stocks.

Here is how they responded:

• The economy and/or inflation: 39.8%
• Monetary policy/interest rates: 20.8%
• Corporate earnings: 17.8%
• Valuations: 15.5%
• Other: 6.1%

See more Sentiment Survey results.