AAII Sentiment Survey: Bullish Sentiment Decreases

Bullish sentiment among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks decreased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, both neutral sentiment and pessimism increased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 9.6 percentage points to 43.2%. Bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 37.5% for the 37th time in 38 weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 1.3 percentage points to 25.1%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 12th time in 19 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 8.3 percentage points to 31.7%. Bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 31.0% for the first time in seven weeks.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 17.9 percentage points to 11.4%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the 12th consecutive week.

This week’s special question asked AAII members if they think the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates before the end of the year.

Here is how they responded:

• They will announce at least one interest rate cut: 57.4%
• It’s a possibility but I’m not certain: 18.4%
• They will announce at least two interest rate cuts: 11.9%
• No, they will not cut interest rates: 11.1%
• Not sure/no opinion: 0.8%

See more Sentiment Survey results.