AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Skyrockets

Bullish sentiment among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, neutral sentiment and pessimism decreased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 9.1 percentage points to 51.6%. Bullish sentiment is now unusually high and is above its historical average of 37.5% for the 41st time in 42 weeks. Bullish sentiment was last higher on July 18, 2024 (52.7%).

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 3.8 percentage points to 24.7%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the seventh consecutive week.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 5.2 percentage points to 23.7%. Bearish sentiment is below its historical average of 31.0% for the ninth time in 11 weeks.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 14.3 percentage points to 28.0%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the 15th time in 16 weeks.

This week’s special question asked AAII members about their perception of second-quarter 2024 earnings.

Here is how they responded:

• They approximately matched my expectations: 45.2%
• They were better than I expected: 33.8%
• They were worse than I expected: 5.5%
• No opinion: 15.2%

See more Sentiment Survey results.