AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Increases

Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, both optimism and neutral sentiment decreased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 0.5 percentage points to 51.2%. Bullish sentiment is unusually high for the second consecutive week and is above its historical average of 37.5% for the 42nd time in 43 weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 2.9 percentage points to 21.9%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the eighth consecutive week.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 3.3 percentage points to 27.0%. Bearish sentiment is below its historical average of 31.0% for the third consecutive week.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 3.8 percentage points to 24.2%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the 16th time in 17 weeks.

This week’s special question asked AAII members if they believe gold’s recent record high prices are sustainable over the next year.

Here is how they responded:

• Yes, gold prices will increase further: 27.0%
• Yes, gold prices will stabilize at current levels: 16.2%
• No, gold prices will decrease moderately: 29.7%
• No, gold prices will significantly drop: 3.2%
• Don’t follow gold prices/no opinion: 23.8%

See more Sentiment Survey results.