AAII Sentiment Survey: Neutral Sentiment Rises

Neutral sentiment among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, optimism and pessimism decreased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 5.8 percentage points to 45.3%. Bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 37.5% for the 43rd time in 44 weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 7.9 percentage points to 29.8%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the ninth consecutive week.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 2.1 percentage points to 24.9%. Bearish sentiment is below its historical average of 31.0% for the fourth consecutive week.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 3.8 percentage points to 20.4%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the 17th time in 18 weeks.

This week’s special question asked AAII members if they are postponing any investment moves until after the November election.

Here is how they responded:

• No, I’m sticking to my long-term plan: 60.0%
• None right now, but that might change after the election results are known: 15.9%
• Yes, I’m postponing putting new money to work: 9.6%
• Yes, I switched to a more conservative allocation until after the election: 9.6%
• Other/not sure: 4.1%

See more Sentiment Survey results.