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AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Rises

by AAII Staff | September 12, 2024

Bearish sentiment among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, optimism and neutral sentiment decreased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 5.5 percentage points to 39.8%. Bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 37.5% for the 44th time in 45 weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 0.5 percentage points to 29.3%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 10th consecutive week.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 6.0 percentage points to 31.0%. Bearish sentiment reached its historical average of 31.0% for the first time in five weeks.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 11.6 percentage points to 8.8%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the 18th time in 19 weeks.

This week’s special question asked AAII members about their perception of the current state of the housing market.

Here is how they responded:

  • Strong: 9.8%
  • Mixed: 55.7%
  • Weak: 29.1%
  • Not sure/no opinion: 5.3%


This week’s Sentiment Survey results:

Bullish: 39.8%, down 5.5 points
Neutral: 29.3%, down 0.5 points
Bearish: 31.0%, up 6.0 points

Historical averages:

Bullish: 37.5%
Neutral: 31.5%
Bearish: 31.0%

See more Sentiment Survey results.



Discussion

RON W from DE posted almost 2 years ago:

Of great concern is the size of the national debt, the interest on that debt ($1 trillion) and no indication the current trend of running annual deficits of $2 trillion is alarming. Will any politician ever talk meaningfully about this, let alone propose and steps to reign the spending in. "Modern Monetary Theory" says this is OK, but isn't that what Argentina has practiced for decades. How did that turn out?


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