AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Leaps

Bullish sentiment among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, neutral sentiment and pessimism decreased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 11.0 percentage points to 50.8%. Bullish sentiment is unusually high and is above its historical average of 37.5% for the 45th time in 46 weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 6.5 percentage points to 22.8%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 11th consecutive week.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 4.5 percentage points to 26.4%. Bearish sentiment is below its historical average of 31.0% for the fifth time in six weeks.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 15.6 percentage points to 24.4%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the 19th time in 20 weeks.

This week’s special question asked AAII members which factor is most influencing their six-month outlook for stocks.

Here is how they responded:

• The economy and/or inflation: 34.9%
• Monetary policy/interest rates: 28.4%
• Valuations: 14.8%
• Corporate earnings: 13.3%
• Other: 8.7%

See more Sentiment Survey results.