AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Falls

Bullish sentiment among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks decreased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, both neutral sentiment and pessimism increased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 4.2 percentage points to 45.5%. Bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 37.5% for the 47th time in 48 weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 0.6 percentage points to 27.3%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 13th consecutive week.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 3.6 percentage points to 27.3%. Bearish sentiment is below its historical average of 31.0% for the seventh time in eight weeks.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 7.8 percentage points to 18.2%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the 21st time in 22 weeks.

This week’s special question asked AAII members how the November elections are currently affecting their expectations for the stock market.

Here is how they responded:

• Making me more cautious: 52.2%
• No impact: 32.9%
• Making me more optimistic: 11.1%
• Other: 3.4%

See more Sentiment Survey results.