AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Drops

Bearish sentiment among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks decreased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, both optimism and neutral sentiment rose.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 3.6 percentage points to 49.0%. Bullish sentiment is unusually high and is above its historical average of 37.5% for the 48th time in 49 weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 3.2 percentage points to 30.4%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 14th consecutive week.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 6.7 percentage points to 20.6%. Bearish sentiment is now unusually low, hitting its lowest level since December 14, 2023 (19.3%). It is below its historical average of 31.0% for the eighth time in nine weeks.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 10.3 percentage points to 28.5%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the 22nd time in 23 weeks.

This week’s special question asked AAII members which factor is most influencing their six-month outlook for stocks.

Here is how they responded:

• The economy and/or inflation: 33.0%
• Monetary policy/interest rates: 23.5%
• Corporate earnings: 15.7%
• Valuations: 13.0%
• Other: 14.8%

See more Sentiment Survey results.