AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Spikes

Bearish sentiment among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, both optimism and neutral sentiment decreased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 3.6 percentage points to 45.5%. Bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 37.5% for the 49th time in 50 weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 1.3 percentage points to 29.2%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 15th consecutive week.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 4.8 percentage points to 25.4%. Bearish sentiment is below its historical average of 31.0% for the ninth time in 10 weeks.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 8.4 percentage points to 20.1%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the 23rd time in 24 weeks.

This week’s special question asked AAII members how they would describe the current valuation of stocks.

Here is how they responded:

• Stocks, in general, are overvalued: 48.7%
• Stocks, in general, are fairly valued: 12.1%
• Valuations are mixed, with some stocks expensive and others cheap: 34.5%
• Stocks, in general, are undervalued: 2.6%
• Not sure/no opinion: 1.7%

See more Sentiment Survey results.