AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Plummets

Bullish sentiment among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks decreased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, both neutral sentiment and pessimism increased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 7.7 percentage points to 37.7%. Bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 37.5% for the 50th time in 51 weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 3.2 percentage points to 32.4%. Neutral sentiment is above its historical average of 31.5% for the first time in 16 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 4.5 percentage points to 29.9%. Bearish sentiment is below its historical average of 31.0% for the 10th time in 11 weeks.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 12.3 percentage points to 7.8%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the 24th time in 25 weeks.

This week’s special question asked AAII members what information they are particularly paying attention to as companies are reporting earnings.

Here is how they responded:

• Whether earnings were better or worse than expected: 29.1%
• Guidance on future revenues and earnings: 26.5%
• Sales and/or earnings growth: 22.8%
• Fundamentals such as the balance sheet or cash flow: 16.4%
• Other: 5.3%

See more Sentiment Survey results.