AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Drops

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks decreased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, neutral sentiment and pessimism increased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 9.2 percentage points to 25.4%. Optimism is unusually low and is below its historical average of 37.5% for the third time in seven weeks. Optimism was last lower on November 2, 2023 (24.3%).

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 6.0 percentage points to 34.0%. Neutral sentiment is above its historical average of 31.5% for the first time in 12 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 3.2 percentage points to 40.6%. Pessimism is unusually high and is above its historical average of 31.0% for the eighth time in nine weeks.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 12.4 percentage points to –15.1%. The bull-bear spread is unusually low and is below its historical average of 6.5% for the fifth time in eight weeks.

This week’s special question asked AAII members what their performance forecast is for the S&P 500 index in 2025.

Here’s how they responded:

• Up 10% or more: 14.5%
• Up between 2% and 9%: 41.5%
• Flat between –1% and +1%: 14.1%
• Down between 2% and 9%: 21.7%
• Down 10% or more: 8.2%

See more Sentiment Survey results.