AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Skyrockets

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, neutral sentiment and pessimism decreased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 18.0 percentage points to 43.4%. Optimism is above its historical average of 37.5% for the first time in four weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 6.9 percentage points to 27.1%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 27th time in 29 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 11.1 percentage points to 29.4%. Pessimism is below its historical average of 31.0% for the second time in 10 weeks.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 29.1 percentage points to 14.0%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the first time in five weeks.

This week’s special question asked AAII members what, if any, changes they expect to make to their portfolios this year.

Here’s how they responded:

• Focus more on portfolio income (more in dividend-paying stocks, more in bonds, etc.): 30.2%
• No changes anticipated: 28.9%
• Allocate more conservatively (more in bonds, more in cash, etc.): 19.5%
• Invest more aggressively (more in stocks, more in growth stocks, etc.): 17.5%
• Other: 3.4%

See more Sentiment Survey results.