AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Returns

Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, optimism and neutral sentiment decreased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 2.5 percentage points to 41.0%. Optimism is above its historical average of 37.5% for the second time in five weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 2.1 percentage points to 25.0%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 28th time in 30 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 4.6 percentage points to 34.0%. Pessimism is above its historical average of 31.0% for the ninth time in 11 weeks.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 7.1 percentage points to 6.9%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the second time in six weeks.

This week’s special question asked AAII members how realistic analyst expectations for earnings growth are this year.

Here’s how they responded:

• They are too optimistic: 42.0%
• They are about right: 39.0%
• They are too conservative: 4.1%
• Not sure/no opinion: 14.9%

See more Sentiment Survey results.