AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Falls

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks declined in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, neutral sentiment and pessimism increased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, declined 4.9 percentage points to 28.4%. Bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 37.5% for the fifth time in seven weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 0.5 percentage points to 24.3%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 30th time in 32 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 4.4 percentage points to 47.3%. Bearish sentiment is unusually high and is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 11th time in 13 weeks. Bearish sentiment was last higher on November 2, 2023 (50.3%).

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) declined 9.3 percentage points to –18.9%. The bull-bear spread is below its historical average of 6.5% for the sixth time in eight weeks.

This week’s special question asked AAII members how they think tariffs will impact the economy.

Here’s how they responded:

• They will slow growth and increase prices: 57.3%
• They will have a temporary impact, but not a lasting one: 20.5%
• They will eventually lead to stronger domestic growth: 12.5%
• They will have a limited impact, if any: 5.3%
• Not sure/no opinion: 4.2%

See more Sentiment Survey results.