AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Launches

Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, both optimism and neutral sentiment decreased. 

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 9.8 percentage points to 19.4%. Bullish sentiment is unusually low and is below its historical average of 37.5% for the seventh time in nine weeks. Bullish sentiment was last lower on March 16, 2023, (19.2%) and was among the lowest 65 readings in the survey’s history.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 10.3 percentage points to 20.0%. Neutral sentiment is unusually low and is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 32nd time in 34 weeks. Neutral sentiment was last lower on September 29, 2022 (19.2%).

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 20.2 percentage points to 60.6%. Bearish sentiment is unusually high and is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 13th time in 15 weeks. Bearish sentiment was last higher on September 29, 2022, (60.8%) and was the seventh-highest reading in the survey’s history.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 30.0 percentage points to –41.2%. The bull-bear spread is below its historical average of 6.5% for the eighth time in 10 weeks. 

This week’s special question asked AAII members how they would describe the current state of the economy.

Here is how they responded: 

• Great: 1.4%
• Good: 36.9%
• Mixed: 54.1%
• Lousy: 6.6%
• Not sure/no opinion: 0.3%

See more Sentiment Survey results.