AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Climbs

Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, optimism and neutral sentiment decreased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 0.2 percentage points to 19.1%. Bullish sentiment is unusually low and is below its historical average of 37.5% for the ninth time in 11 weeks. Bullish sentiment was last lower on September 22, 2022 (17.7%). This is the first time that bullish sentiment has been below 20% for three straight weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 1.9 percentage points to 21.7%. Neutral sentiment is unusually low and is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 34th time in 36 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 2.1 percentage points to 59.2%. Bearish sentiment is unusually high and is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 15th time in 17 weeks. This is the first time in the history of the survey that bearish sentiment has exceeded 57% for three consecutive weeks.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 2.3 percentage points to –40.1%. The bull-bear spread is below its historical average of 6.5% for the 10th time in 12 weeks. 

This week’s special question asked AAII members if they think other investors are too bullish or bearish right now.

Here is how they responded:

• They are too bearish: 31.9%
• Their sentiment toward the market is about right: 34.7%
• They are too bullish: 23.9%
• No opinion/not sure: 9.0%

See more Sentiment Survey results.