AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Surges

Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, optimism and neutral sentiment decreased. Most of this week’s survey responses were captured prior to President Trump’s tariff announcement on Wednesday, April 2.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 5.7 percentage points to 21.8%. Bullish sentiment is unusually low and is below its historical average of 37.5% for the 12th time in 14 weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 4.1 percentage points to 16.3%. Neutral sentiment is unusually low and is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 37th time in 39 weeks. Neutral sentiment was last lower on April 1, 2020 (16.0%).

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 9.8 percentage points to 61.9%. Bearish sentiment is unusually high and is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 18th time in 20 weeks. This is the third-highest bearish sentiment reading in the history of the survey and was last higher on March 5, 2009 (70.3%).

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 15.4 percentage points to –40.2%. The bull-bear spread is below its historical average of 6.5% for the 13th time in 15 weeks.

This week’s special question asked AAII members if they hold gold or other precious metals in their portfolio, either directly or through an exchange-traded fund (ETF).

Here is how they responded:

• No, I do not: 59.9%
• Yes, I own gold or other precious metals: 18.4%
• Yes, I own both precious metals and mining companies: 11.9%
• I just own mining companies that focus on precious metals: 7.4%
• I am considering adding gold to my portfolio: 2.1%

See more Sentiment Survey results.