AAII Sentiment Survey: Neutral Sentiment Ticks Up

Neutral sentiment among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, optimism and pessimism decreased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 3.5 percentage points to 21.9%. Bullish sentiment is unusually low and is below its historical average of 37.5% for the 15th time in 17 weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 4.8 percentage points to 22.5%. Neutral sentiment is unusually low and is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 40th time in 42 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 1.3 percentage points to 55.6%. Bearish sentiment is unusually high and is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 21st time in 23 weeks. Bearish sentiment has now been above 50% for nine consecutive weeks, the longest period over 50% in the survey’s history.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 2.2 percentage points to –33.6%. The bull-bear spread is below its historical average of 6.5% for the 16th time in 18 weeks and is below –20.0% for the ninth consecutive week. This is the longest streak below –20.0% since a 12-week stretch between September 14 and November 30, 1990. 

This week’s special question asked AAII members how their sentiment toward the stock market has changed since the start of the year.

Here is how they responded:

• I’ve become more bearish: 54.6%
• I’ve become more cautious, but not bearish: 26.7%
• I’ve become more bullish: 8.6%
• It is about the same: 8.6%
• Not sure: 1.6%

See more Sentiment Survey results.