AAII Sentiment Survey: Neutral Sentiment Increases
by AAII Staff | June 05, 2025
Neutral sentiment among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, optimism and pessimism decreased.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 0.2 percentage points to 32.7%. Bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 37.5% for the 17th time in 18 weeks and is above 30% for only the ninth time this year.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 0.7 percentage points to 25.9%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 46th time in 48 weeks.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 0.4 percentage points to 41.4%. Bearish sentiment is unusually high and is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 27th time in 29 weeks.
The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 0.2 percentage points to –8.8%. The bull-bear spread is below its historical average of 6.5% for the 18th time in 20 weeks.
This week’s special question asked AAII members how they would describe the current state of the economy.
Here is how they responded:
- Great: 3.2%
- Good: 28.2%
- Mixed: 57.9%
- Lousy: 9.6%
- Not sure/no opinion: 0.7%
Bullish: 32.7%, down 0.2 points
Neutral: 25.9%, up 0.7 points
Bearish: 41.4%, down 0.4 points
Bullish: 37.5%
Neutral: 31.5%
Bearish: 31.0%
See more Sentiment Survey results.
Discussion
Melinda H from CO posted over 1 year ago:
It would be helpful to see the historical sentiment information in a chart, along with an actual line using a broad market index (not the Dow). How representative in terms of causing future market moves are the people voting in this survey?
JEAN H from IL posted over 1 year ago:
Melinda, The downloadable spreadsheet of historical Sentiment Survey results includes a chart tab showing bullish sentiment and S&P 500 index. Click on "See more Sentiment Survey results" above and you'll see the download button at the bottom of that page. Regarding future market moves, see this article https://www.aaii.com/journal/article/is-the-aaii-sentiment-survey-a-contrarian-indicator. Thanks for your interest.
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