AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Pulls Back

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks decreased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, neutral sentiment and pessimism increased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 3.6 percentage points to 41.4%. Bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 37.5% for the second time in seven weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 1.1 percentage points to 23.0%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 51st time in 53 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 2.5 percentage points to 35.6%. Bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 32nd time in 34 weeks.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 6.2 percentage points to 5.7%. The bull-bear spread is below its historical average of 6.5% for the 22nd time in 23 weeks.

This week’s special question asked AAII members how the stock market’s year-to-date return compares to their expectations at the start of 2025.

Here is how they responded:

• It is better than expected: 55.2%
• It is about as I expected: 32.3%
• It is worse than expected: 9.7%
• Not sure/other: 2.8%

See more Sentiment Survey results.