AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Pulls Back

Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks decreased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, optimism and neutral sentiment increased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 3.8 percentage points to 34.6%. Bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 37.5% for the fifth time in nine weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 1.6 percentage points to 26.0%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 58th time in 60 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 5.4 percentage points to 39.4%. Bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 39th time in 41 weeks.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 9.1 percentage points to –4.8%. The bull-bear spread is below its historical average of 6.5% for the 28th time in 30 weeks.

This week’s special question asked AAII members how their sentiment toward the stock market has changed since the start of the year.

Here is how they responded:

• I’ve become more bearish: 32.1%
• I’ve become more cautious, but not bearish: 33.3%
• It is about the same: 18.7%
• I’ve become more bullish: 15.5%

See more Sentiment Survey results.