AAII Sentiment Survey: Bullish Sentiment Jumps to a 58-Week High
by AAII Staff | February 09, 2023
Optimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of the stock market jumped to its highest level in more than a year according to the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Neutral sentiment also rose, while pessimism fell.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 7.6 percentage points to 37.5%. This is the highest level of optimism registered by the survey since December 30, 2021 (37.7%). It is also the first time in 58 weeks that bullish sentiment is at or above its historical average of 37.5%.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, rose 2.0 percentage points to 37.5%. Neutral sentiment is above its historical average of 31.5% for the sixth consecutive week. At six weeks, this is the longest streak of above-average neutral sentiment since a seven-week stretch in December 2021 and January 2022.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, fell 9.6 percentage points to 25.0%. This is the lowest level of pessimism registered by the survey since November 11, 2021 (24.0%). Bearish sentiment is below its historical average of 31.0% for just the fourth time out of the past 64 weeks.
The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) is 12.5%. This is the first positive reading in 45 weeks and the first above-average reading in 58 weeks.
This year’s rebound in stock prices along with less aggressive monetary policy are likely contributing to the improved level of optimism. Nonetheless, concerns about the economy, inflation and corporate earnings remain.
Bullish: 37.5%, up 7.6 points
Neutral: 37.5%, up 2.0 points
Bearish: 25.0%, down 9.6 points
Bullish: 37.5%
Neutral: 31.5%
Bearish: 31.0%
See more Sentiment Survey results.
Discussion
KEVIN S from CA posted over 3 years ago:
Really? Highest optimism in one year...With Fed promising to increase more for longer. Hilarious. Making nothing but money staying in short term bonds, cash, and shorting high flyers via puts. In and out of CAT, AAPL, PHM, META, SBUX, etc. on short side. Shorting XLE if it pops another 2%. Silly season for sure. Relentless optimism=hope=not a strategy.
JOHN P from CA posted over 3 years ago:
Yes, there are more bulls than bears, and this continued in the 2/15/23. But your "gauge" is pointing towards "fearful" rather than towards optimism or "greedy." If everyone thought the market was going up, that would be an indication of GREED, not FEAR. The gauge has been incorrect and backwards since its inception. Please fix this error! It is now pointing more towards red than towards green. Yet the number of green bulls is more than the number of red bears. It is extremely confusing for you to say that a market with more optimists than pessimists as being "fearful," but that is what your gauge shows.
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