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AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Rises

by AAII Staff | February 26, 2026

Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, optimism and neutral sentiment decreased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 1.3 percentage points to 33.2%. Bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 37.5% for the second time in 13 weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 1.5 percentage points to 27.0%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 84th time in 86 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 2.8 percentage points to 39.8%. Bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 31.0% for the sixth time in 13 weeks.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 4.1 percentage points to –6.6%. The bull-bear spread is below its historical average of 6.5% for the third time in 13 weeks.

This week’s special question asked AAII members how they would describe the earnings guidance given by companies during fourth-quarter 2025 earnings season.

Here is how they responded:

  • Better than I expected: 27.2%
  • Approximately what I expected: 43.5%
  • Worse than I expected: 7.6%
  • Not sure/no opinion: 21.2%


This week’s Sentiment Survey results:

Bullish: 33.2%, down 1.3 points
Neutral: 27.0%, down 1.5 points
Bearish: 39.8%, up 2.8 points

Historical averages:

Bullish: 37.5%
Neutral: 31.5%
Bearish: 31.0%

See more Sentiment Survey results.



Discussion

EDMUND B from MA posted 5 months ago:

I think much of this market is driven by AI and specular hype kept buoyant by dividend yields meeting quarterly marks supported by shrinking stock buy back (surplus cash). That surplus (stock buy back) will run dry and then on top devaluation of the dollar and tariffs rising costs will kick the market and AI trading will run to the door (over reaction). Oh well AI is still learning. Eventually with AI replacing a number of workers underemployed and unemployed will then tap into what cash and stocks they may have to make ends meet: food on the table, roof over head and keep the lights on etc. will run dry. I am Bearish. I hope I am wrong. Ed B


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