AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Leaps

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, neutral sentiment and pessimism decreased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 8.4 percentage points to 44.9%. Bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 37.5% for the first time in six weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 5.1 percentage points to 18.9%. Neutral sentiment is unusually low and is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 101st time in 103 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 3.2 percentage points to 36.1%. Bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 20th consecutive week.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 11.6 percentage points to 8.8%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the second time in 20 weeks.

This week’s special question asked AAII members how the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran has influenced their economic expectations.

Here is how they responded:

• Makes me more pessimistic: 31.2%
• No impact/little impact: 34.4%
• Makes me more optimistic: 27.4%
• Not sure/no opinion: 7.0%

See more Sentiment Survey results.