AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Jumps

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, neutral sentiment and pessimism decreased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 6.0 percentage points to 37.0%. Bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 37.5% for the third time in fourth weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 1.9 percentage points to 25.0%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.0% for the 22nd time in 23 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 4.2 percentage points to 38.0%. Bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 31.5% for the 26th consecutive week.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 10.2 percentage points to –0.9%. The bull-bear spread is below its historical average of 6.5% for the third time in four weeks.

This week’s special question asked AAII members what they think about the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged.

Here is how they responded:      

• They should have raised rates: 30.6%
• It was the right move: 55.1%
• They should have cut rates: 5.6%
• Not sure/no opinion: 8.7%

See more Sentiment Survey results.