AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Above Average for First Time Since February

Optimism shot up and is above average for the first time since February 2023 in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Neutral sentiment decreased, while bearish sentiment plunged below average after a 15-week streak of above-average readings.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 15.5 percentage points to 44.5%. This puts optimism above its historical average of 37.5% for the first time since February 2023. Bullish sentiment was last higher on November 11, 2021 (48.0%).

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 3.0 percentage points to 31.2%. Neutral sentiment is below the historical average of 31.5% for the fourth time out of the past 23 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, plunged 12.5 percentage points to 24.3%. After a 15-week streak of above-average readings, bearish sentiment fell to its lowest level since November 11, 2021 (24.0%).

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) rose to 20.2%, up 28.0 percentage points. The bull-bear spread is at its highest level since November 11, 2021 (24.0%).

This week’s special question asked AAII members what their perception is of the current state of the housing market. Here are the responses:

• Strong: 16.3%
• Mixed: 55.2%
• Weak: 22.9%
• Not sure/No opinion: 5.2%

See more Sentiment Survey results.