AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Above Average for Fifth Consecutive Week

Optimism increased and remains above average for the fifth consecutive week in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Neutral sentiment and bearish sentiment both decreased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 4.5 percentage points to 46.4%. This reading marks a new high for 2023. Bullish sentiment was last higher on November 11, 2021 (48.0%). Optimism is above its historical average of 37.5% for the fifth consecutive week. This has been the longest above-average streak since a five-week streak in October and November 2021.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 1.5 percentage points to 29.1%. Neutral sentiment has been below its historical average of 31.5% for the last three weeks and is at its lowest level of 2023.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 3.0 percentage points to 24.5%. At five consecutive weeks, this is the longest that pessimism has been below 30% since a five-week streak in October and November 2021.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 7.4 percentage points to 21.9%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.4% for the fifth consecutive week.

This week’s special question asked AAII members how their portfolio performed during the first half of 2023 relative to what they expected at the start of the year. Here are the responses:

• Better than I expected: 52.5%
• About as I expected: 25.8%
• Worse than I expected: 13.7%
• I didn’t set expectations: 7.4%
• Other/not sure: 0.6%

See more Sentiment Survey results.