AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Above Average for Sixth Consecutive Week

Optimism decreased but remains above average for the sixth consecutive week in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Neutral sentiment and bearish sentiment both increased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 5.4 percentage points to 41.0%. This reading marks the sixth consecutive week of being above its historical average of 37.5%. This has been the longest above-average streak since a six-week streak in June and July 2021.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 4.0 percentage points to 33.1%. Neutral sentiment is above its historical average of 31.5% after being below average for the last three weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 1.4 percentage points to 25.9%. At six consecutive weeks, this is the longest below-average streak since a 23-week streak from February to July 2021.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 6.8 percentage points to 15.1%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.4% for the sixth consecutive week.

This week’s special question asked AAII members which asset class will realize the highest returns over the second half of the year. Here are the responses:

• Stocks: 56.8%
• Bonds: 16.7%
• Cash: 11.7%
• Gold/commodities: 7.9%
• Other/not sure: 6.6%

See more Sentiment Survey results.