AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Above Average for Seventh Consecutive Week

Optimism increased and reached an unusually high level in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Neutral sentiment and bullish sentiment both decreased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, jumped 10.4 percentage points to 51.4%. This marks the seventh consecutive week that bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 37.5%. This has been the longest above-average streak since a 13-week stretch from February to May 2021. Bullish sentiment was last higher on April 22, 2021 (52.7%) and is currently at an unusually high level.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, plunged 6.0 percentage points to 27.1%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the fifth time in 10 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 4.4 percentage points to 21.5%. At seven consecutive weeks, this is the longest pessimism has been below average since a 23-week streak from February to July 2021. Bearish sentiment is at its lowest level since June 10, 2021 (20.7%) and is nearing the bottom of its typical range.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) shot up 14.7 percentage points to 29.9%. The bull-bear spread has reached an unusually high level.

This week’s special question asked AAII members about their thoughts on small-cap stocks still being in a bear market. Here are the responses:

• Keeps small-cap stocks attractively valued: 34.4%
• The lack of market breadth is concerning: 31.5%
• Doesn’t concern me/I focus on large-cap stocks: 14.3%
• Other/not sure: 19.4%

See more Sentiment Survey results.