AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Above Average for Eighth Consecutive Week

Optimism decreased but remains above average in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Both neutral sentiment and bullish sentiment increased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, plunged 6.5 percentage points to 44.9%. This is the eighth consecutive week that bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 37.5%. This has been the longest above-average streak since a 13-week stretch from February to May 2021. Optimism is back within its typical range after its unusually high reading last week.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 3.8 percentage points to 31.0%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the sixth time in 11 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 2.6 percentage points to 24.1%. At eight consecutive weeks, this is the longest that pessimism has been below its historical average of 31.0% since a 23-week streak from February to July 2021. After nearing an unusually low level last week, pessimism has returned to its typical range.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) plunged 9.1 percentage points to 20.8%. The bull-bear spread reached an unusually high level last week and remains above average for the eighth consecutive week.

This week’s special question asked AAII members to share which factors are most influencing their six-month outlook for stocks. Here are the responses:

• The economy and/or inflation: 42.9%
• Monetary policy/interest rates: 22.7%
• Corporate earnings: 14.7%
• Valuations: 11.7%
• Other: 7.7%

See more Sentiment Survey results.