AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Above Average for Ninth Consecutive Week

Optimism increased and remained above average for the ninth consecutive week in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Both neutral and bearish sentiment decreased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 4.1 percentage points to 49.0%. This is the ninth consecutive week that bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 37.5%. This has been the longest above-average streak since a 13-week stretch from February to May 2021. Bullish sentiment is unusually high for the second time in three weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 1.3 percentage points to 29.7%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the seventh time in 12 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 2.8 percentage points to 21.3%. At nine consecutive weeks, this is the longest that pessimism has been below its historical average of 31.0% since a 23-week streak from February to July 2021. Pessimism is right on the cusp of being unusually low.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 6.9 percentage points to 27.7%. The bull-bear spread reached an unusually high level for the second time in three weeks and remains above average for the ninth consecutive week.

This week’s special question asked AAII members what they thought about the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates by 0.25%. Here are the responses:

• It was the right decision: 63.1%
• They should have kept interest rates unchanged: 21.9%
• They should have raised rates by a larger amount: 6.9%
• They should have cut rates: 2.0%
• Not sure/no opinion: 6.1%

See more Sentiment Survey results.