Is The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) Overvalued?
We dive into why The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) could be considered overvalued on 2026-07-30, based on AAII’s Value Score and Grade.Tudor Pop
A+ Stock Grade Summary:
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COMPANY SUMMARY
The GEO Group, Inc. is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 97 facilities totaling approximately 76,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 20,000 employees. The GEO Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1984 and is based in Boca Raton, United States.
Commentary & Analysis
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Financial Summary
| Share Statistics | GEO | Industry Median |
Percentile (All Stocks) |
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| Market Cap (Mil) | $4,051.5 | $758.6 | 64% |
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| Shares Out (Mil) | 134.1 | 40.4 | 69% |
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| Institutional Ownership | 95.2% | 76.9% | 67% |
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| Float (Mil) | 115.4 | 35.5 | 64% |
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| Beta | 0.83 | 0.79 | 49% |
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| Avg Daily Volume (000s) | 1,319 | 296 | 75% |
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| Price Change (52-week) |
21.4% | 77.8% | 63% |
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| Growth | GEO | Industry Median |
Percentile (All Stocks) |
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| Sales (5yr) | 2.3% | 6.8% | 24% |
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| Net Income (5yr) | 17.6% | 9.2% | 69% |
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| EPS (5yr) | 14.1% | 13.7% | 54 |
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| Dividends (5yr) | (14.9%) | 0.0% | 0% |
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| Cash Flow (5yr) | (15.0%) | (15.2%) | 52% |
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| Estimates | Qtrly | Current Fiscal Year |
Next Fiscal Year |
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| # of Estimates | 4 | 4 | 3 | |
| Current EPS | $0.288 | $1.220 | $1.663 | |
| Month Ago EPS | $0.288 | $1.220 | $1.663 | |
| # Rev Up | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| # Rev Down | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Three Months Ago EPS | $0.275 | $1.195 | $1.780 | |
| Year/Year Chg | (0.3%) | (33.0%) | na | |
| Financials | GEO | Industry Median |
Percentile (All Stocks) |
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| Sales (TTM) (Mil) | $2,732 | $1,551 | 65% |
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| Net Income (TTM) (Mil) | $273 | $7 | 72% |
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| EPS (TTM) | $2.003 | $0.100 | 72% |
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| Operating Cash Flow (TTM) (Mil) | $158 | $87 | 57% |
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| Net Cash Flow (TTM) (Mil) | $25 | $0 | 64% |
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| Long-Term Debt (Q1) (Mil) | $1,642 | $216 | 72% |
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| Enterprise Value (Q1) (Mil) | $5,077 | $1,123 | 63% |
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| Valuation | GEO | Industry Median |
Percentile (All Stocks) |
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| P/B | 2.60 | 2.17 | 60% |
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| P/E | 15.6 | 24.4 | 38% |
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| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0% |
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| PEG (5yr hist) | 1.1 | 1.3 | 47% |
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| Ratios | GEO | Industry Median |
Percentile (All Stocks) |
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| Gross Margin | 25.5% | 31.1% | 29% |
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| Net Margin | 10.0% | 1.5% | 63% |
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| ROA | 7.3% | 1.0% | 81% |
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| ROE | 19.2% | 3.7% | 78% |
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| Liabilities to Assets | 60.8% | 58.6% | 55% |
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| F-Score | 7 | 5 | 84% |
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Passing Stock Screens
As of 7/31/2026, from a list of 60 stock screening strategies,
GURU STRATEGY
Kirkpatrick Bargain Screen
Factors: Value, Momentum
Investing model outlined in Charles Kirkpatrick's book, Beat the Market: Invest by Knowing What Stocks to Buy and What Stocks to Sell.
| Performance Since Inception: | 6.8% |
| +/- S&P 500: | -0.7 |
