Is ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) Overvalued?
We dive into why ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) could be considered overvalued on 2026-07-21, based on AAII’s Value Score and Grade.Michael Rose
A+ Stock Grade Summary:
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COMPANY SUMMARY
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. It also offers less-than-truckload (LTL) logistics services; integrated logistics solutions for warehousing, distribution, and transportation; and freight forwarding services. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Commentary & Analysis
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Financial Summary
| Share Statistics | ZTO | Industry Median |
Percentile (All Stocks) |
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| Market Cap (Mil) | $18,224.3 | $261.3 | 85% |
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| Shares Out (Mil) | 115.7 | 36.4 | 65% |
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| Institutional Ownership | 34.7% | 48.5% | 15% |
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| Float (Mil) | 370.3 | 35.0 | 82% |
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| Beta | -0.22 | 0.93 | 3% |
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| Avg Daily Volume (000s) | 1,811 | 113 | 80% |
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| Price Change (52-week) |
20.2% | 70.7% | 62% |
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| Growth | ZTO | Industry Median |
Percentile (All Stocks) |
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| Sales (5yr) | 12.7% | 7.3% | 67% |
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| Net Income (5yr) | 14.5% | 3.1% | 62% |
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| EPS (5yr) | 14.0% | 9.1% | 54 |
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| Dividends (5yr) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 73% |
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| Cash Flow (5yr) | (19.0%) | (6.0%) | 35% |
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| Estimates | Qtrly | Current Fiscal Year |
Next Fiscal Year |
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| # of Estimates | 3 | 12 | 13 | |
| Current EPS | $0.504 | $2.045 | $2.281 | |
| Month Ago EPS | $0.523 | $2.054 | $2.287 | |
| # Rev Up | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| # Rev Down | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three Months Ago EPS | $0.479 | $1.960 | $2.214 | |
| Year/Year Chg | 29.6% | 27.9% | 55.7% | |
| Financials | ZTO | Industry Median |
Percentile (All Stocks) |
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| Sales (TTM) (Mil) | $7,465 | $574 | 80% |
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| Net Income (TTM) (Mil) | $1,335 | $14 | 89% |
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| EPS (TTM) | $1.685 | $0.200 | 69% |
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| Operating Cash Flow (TTM) (Mil) | $1,797 | $21 | 87% |
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| Net Cash Flow (TTM) (Mil) | ($136) | $0 | 12% |
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| Long-Term Debt (Q1) (Mil) | $1,534 | $136 | 71% |
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| Enterprise Value (Q1) (Mil) | $16,775 | $356 | 81% |
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| Valuation | ZTO | Industry Median |
Percentile (All Stocks) |
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| P/B | 2.04 | 1.99 | 51% |
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| P/E | 14.5 | 16.6 | 34% |
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| Dividend Yield | 3.2% | 0.0% | 86% |
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| PEG (5yr hist) | 1.0 | 1.0 | 45% |
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| Ratios | ZTO | Industry Median |
Percentile (All Stocks) |
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| Gross Margin | 24.9% | 14.9% | 28% |
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| Net Margin | 17.9% | 1.9% | 77% |
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| ROA | 9.9% | 2.5% | 87% |
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| ROE | 15.2% | 5.1% | 71% |
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| Liabilities to Assets | 35.7% | 58.5% | 27% |
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| F-Score | 5 | 5 | 51% |
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Passing Stock Screens
As of 7/31/2026, from a list of 60 stock screening strategies,
GURU STRATEGY
Neff Screen
Factors: Value, Growth
An approach using a stringent contrarian viewpoint—finding undervalued, out-of-favor stocks in the bargain basement that have an optimistic future.
| Performance Since Inception: | 14.6% |
| +/- S&P 500: | +7.1 |
