3 Undervalued Homebuilding Stocks for Thursday, December, 29

By AAII Staff
December 29, 2022
Diamond graphic indicating best value stocks in their industry
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Based on key financial metrics such as the price-to-sales ratio, shareholder yield and the price-earnings ratio, the following 3 stocks made the list for top value stocks in the Homebuilding industry. Those looking for value stocks to add to their portfolio may want to use this list as a starting point for further investment research.

Latest Homebuilding Stock News

Before choosing which top Homebuilding stock to buy, be sure to conduct proper due diligence: analyze various financial metrics and look at historical data, public statements and news coverage.

Our outlook is positive, as families living in highrise condos or apartment rentals seek singlefamily homes or out-of-state migration. Summer months are normally the seasonally peak period for homebuilding, and we think the slower months in autumn/winter are likely to remain strong depending on available supply of selling communities. Through June 2021, U.S. housing economic data has shown continued strength in new housing sales, housing starts and permits, as well as home deliveries, surprising even homebuilders with the current market strength. We think homebuilders are at an advantage to raise prices given the alltime low of U.S. existing home inventory as well as the large demand of millennials that are financially able to own a home with low rates and built up savings. Most homebuilders have order backlog that can produce solid home deliveries in 2022. Opening up new selling communities will be critical to sustain high growth in new orders, home deliveries, and homebuilding revenue. Home prices are hitting records in just about every part of the country. The S&P CoreLogic CaseShiller Home Price Indices are the leading measures of U.S. residential real estate prices that track changes in the value of residential real estate. The June 29 release for the 20-City Composite reported a 14.9% increase Y/Y for April data, up from 13.4% in the previous month. Showing the highest Y/Y gains among the 20 cities were Phoenix (+22.3%), San Diego (+21.6%), and Seattle (+20.2%). The demand side presents challenges as to forecasting future market conditions, especially what can go wrong with one of the strongest housing markets in the last 30 years. In 2021, mortgage rates are likely to rise, as evidenced by 30-year fixed rate mortgages in the 3.30% to 3.40% range. We think over 4.0% would a warning sign. Homebuilders are doing well in all product categories, and we think the wealth effect from the stock market is bringing more cash buyers for luxury homes. Active adult communities are getting baby boomers who are finding it easy to sell their homes. We think a strong employment market bodes well for households, who might have more confidence to buy a home, especially from millennials.

Why Focus on Undervalued Homebuilding Stocks?

Value investors seek to buy stocks at a discount to their intrinsic value. Long-term returns show that such strategies are advantageous. Value stocks, as a group, tend to outperform growth stocks over extended periods of time. Typically, value investors perform financial analysis of numerous metrics, don’t follow the herd and are long-term investors.

AAII’s A+ Investor Value Grade is derived from a stock’s Value Score. The Value Score is the percentile rank of the average of the percentile ranks of the price-to-sales ratio, price-earnings ratio, enterprise-value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio, shareholder yield, price-to-book-value ratio and price-to-free-cash-flow ratio. The score is variable, meaning it can consider all six ratios or, should any of the six ratios not be valid, the remaining ratios that are valid. To be assigned a Value Score, stocks must have a valid (non-null) ratio and corresponding ranking for at least two of the six valuation ratios.

What Goes Into AAII’s Value Grade?

Stock evaluation requires access to huge amounts of data as well as the knowledge and time to sift through it all, make sense of financial ratios, read income statements and analyze recent stock movement. AAII created A+ Investor, a robust data suite that condenses data research in an actionable and customizable way suitable for investors of all knowledge levels, to help investors with that task.

AAII’s proprietary stock grades come with A+ Investor. These offer intuitive A–F grades for more than just value. It is possible for a stock to appear cheap based on one valuation metric but appear expensive on another. It is also possible for one valuation ratio to be associated with outperforming stocks during certain periods of time but not others. Some stocks may even have null values for certain metrics like the price-earnings ratio or the price-to-book ratio but not others. An example of this would be a company with losses instead of profits or a negative book value because of heavy borrowing. Negative earnings or book value result in non-meaningful ratios that are left blank or null.

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3 Undervalued Homebuilding Stocks

Of course, there are countless value stocks that are worth mentioning, but this is a concise list of the top 3 undervalued stocks in the Homebuilding industry for Thursday, December 29, 2022. Let’s take a closer look at their individual scores to see how they measure up against each other and the Homebuilding industry median.

Company Ticker Price/Sales Price/Earnings EV/EBITDA Shareholder Yield Price/Book Value Price/Free Cash Flow Value Grade
Green Brick Partners Inc GRBK 0.60 3.8 3.9 9.3% 1.11 23.0 A
M/I Homes Inc MHO 0.31 2.7 2.9 5.6% 0.64 na A
Meritage Homes Corp MTH 0.56 3.5 2.7 2.9% 0.89 na A

The Value Grade is assigned based on how each stock’s composite valuation compares to all other stocks.

The process for assigning grades starts with each variable for a given stock. The percentile rankings for all valid ratios that a stock has are calculated. So, for instance, a stock could have a price-to-book ranking in the 43rd percentile, a price-earnings ranking in the 67th percentile, a price-to-sales ranking in the 23rd percentile, etc. Then, those rankings are averaged for each stock. (A minimum of two valid variables are required, though all six will be used if available.)

Once the average of the individual variables is calculated, that average is ranked against all stocks. Put another way, each stock’s composite valuation is compared to all other stocks. These ranks are then sorted into quintiles from the cheapest 20% (a grade of A) to the most expensive 20% (a grade of F).

As always, we recommend that you conduct proper due diligence and research before investing in any security. We also suggest that investors utilize numerous grades, not just value, when it comes to deciding whether a company is a good fit for their allocation needs.

Green Brick Partners Inc’s Value Grade

Value Grade:

Metric Score GRBK industry Median
Price/Sales 23 0.60 0.72
Price/Earnings 7 3.8 12.7
EV/EBITDA 16 3.9 7.7
Shareholder Yield 8 9.3% 0.0%
Price/Book Value 33 1.11 1.64
Price/Free Cash Flow 61 23.0 18.6

Green Brick Partners, Inc. is a diversified homebuilding and land development company. The Company is engaged in all aspects of the homebuilding process, including land acquisition and development, entitlements, design, construction, title and mortgage services, marketing and sales and the creation of brand images at its residential neighborhoods and master planned communities. It operates through three segments: Builder operations Central, Builder operations Southeast, and Land development. Builder operations Central represents operations of its builders in Texas, whereas Builder operations Southeast represents operations of its builders in Georgia and Florida. It acquires and develops land and build homes through its eight brands of builders in four markets. Its core markets are in the United States, metropolitan areas of Dallas-Forth Worth (DFW), Texas and Atlanta, Georgia, as well as the Treasure Coast, Florida area. It also owns a noncontrolling interest in Colorado Springs.

Stocks with a Value Score from 81 to 100 are considered deep value, those with a score between 61 and 80 are value and so on.

Green Brick Partners Inc has a Value Score of 91, which is considered to be undervalued.

When you look at Green Brick Partners Inc’s price-to-sales ratio at 0.60 compared to the industry median at 0.72, this company has a lower price relative to revenue compared to its peers. This could make Green Brick Partners Inc’s stock more attractive for value investors.

Green Brick Partners Inc’s price-earnings ratio is 3.8 compared to the industry median at 12.7. This means it has a lower share price relative to earnings compared to its peers. This could make Green Brick Partners Inc more attractive for value investors.

Now, let’s assess Green Brick Partners Inc’s EV/EBITDA ratio, also known as enterprise multiple. At 3.9, when compared to the industry median of 7.7, the company may be considered undervalued in relation to its peers. Value investors could use the enterprise multiple to identify stocks that are considered overvalued or undervalued relative to their industry.

Shareholder yield is the sum of a stock’s dividend yield (paid over previous 12 months minus special dividends) and the percentage of net share buybacks over the previous 12 months. Green Brick Partners Inc’s shareholder yield is lower than its industry median ratio of 0.0%. Value investors may look for an attractive shareholder yield because it can be a powerful tool for identifying if the company has a good management team.

As one of the most common value metrics, the price-to-book ratio evaluates a company’s current market price relative to its book value. Green Brick Partners Inc’s price-to-book ratio is higher than its industry median ratio of 1.64. This could make Green Brick Partners Inc less attractive to investors looking for a new addition to their portfolio.

Lastly, let’s take a look at Green Brick Partners Inc’s price-to-free-cash-flow ratio (P/FCF), which can indicate a company’s market value relative to its operating cash flow. Green Brick Partners Inc’s price-to-free-cash-flow ratio is higher than its industry median ratio of 18.6. This could make Green Brick Partners Inc less attractive because the higher P/FCF ratio indicates that Green Brick Partners Inc is undervalued. The P/FCF ratio metric can also be viewed over a long-term time frame to see if the company's cash flow to share price value is generally improving or worsening.

M/I Homes Inc’s Value Grade

Value Grade:

Metric Score MHO industry Median
Price/Sales 13 0.31 0.72
Price/Earnings 4 2.7 12.7
EV/EBITDA 10 2.9 7.7
Shareholder Yield 14 5.6% 0.0%
Price/Book Value 16 0.64 1.64
Price/Free Cash Flow na na 18.6

M/I Homes, Inc. is a builder of single-family homes. The Company consists of two operations: homebuilding and financial services. The homebuilding operations consists of two segments: Northern and Southern regions. The Northern segment includes Chicago, Illinois; Cincinnati, Ohio; Columbus, Ohio; Indianapolis, Indiana; Minneapolis/St. Paul, Minnesota; and Detroit, Michigan. The Southern segment includes Orlando, Florida; Sarasota, Florida; Tampa, Florida; Austin, Texas; Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas; Houston, Texas; San Antonio, Texas; Charlotte, North Carolina; Raleigh, North Carolina; and Nashville, Tennessee. It designs, markets, constructs, and sells single-family homes and attached townhomes to first-time, move-up, empty-nester, and luxury buyers. It offers mortgage loans and title services to customers of its homebuilding operation. It constructs homes in planned development communities and mixed-use communities. The Company offers homes for sale in 175 communities.

Stocks with a Value Score from 81 to 100 are considered deep value, those with a score between 61 and 80 are value and so on.

M/I Homes Inc has a Value Score of 99, which is considered to be undervalued.

M/I Homes Inc’s price-earnings ratio is 2.7 compared to the industry median at 12.7. This means that it has a lower price relative to its earnings compared to its peers. This makes M/I Homes Inc more attractive for value investors.

M/I Homes Inc’s price-to-book ratio is lower than its peers. This could make M/I Homes Inc more attractive for value investors when compared to the industry median at 1.64.

You can read more about M/I Homes Inc’s key financial metrics like shareholder yield, price-to-free-cash-flow and EV/EBITDA ratio, or learn more about its Momentum and Growth Grades, by subscribing to A+ Investor.

Meritage Homes Corp’s Value Grade

Value Grade:

Metric Score MTH industry Median
Price/Sales 22 0.56 0.72
Price/Earnings 6 3.5 12.7
EV/EBITDA 10 2.7 7.7
Shareholder Yield 25 2.9% 0.0%
Price/Book Value 25 0.89 1.64
Price/Free Cash Flow na na 18.6

Meritage Homes Corporation is a designer and builder of single-family homes. The Company’s segments include Homebuilding and Financial Services. The Homebuilding segment is engaged in the business of acquiring and developing land, constructing homes, marketing and selling those homes and providing warranty and customer services. In addition, Homebuilding operations consist of three regions West, Central and East, which includes nine states Arizona, California, Colorado, Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee. Financial services reporting segment, which offers title and escrow, mortgage, and insurance services. Its financial services operations also provide mortgage services to its homebuyers through an unconsolidated joint venture. The Company also operates Carefree Title Agency, Inc. (Carefree Title) company. Carefree Title's core business includes title insurance and closing/settlement services to its homebuyers.

Stocks with a Value Score from 81 to 100 are considered deep value, those with a score between 61 and 80 are value and so on.

Meritage Homes Corp has a Value Score of 97, which is considered to be undervalued.

Meritage Homes Corp’s price-earnings ratio is 3.5 compared to the industry median at 12.7. This means that it has a lower price relative to its earnings compared to its peers. This makes Meritage Homes Corp more attractive for value investors.

Meritage Homes Corp’s price-to-book ratio is lower than its peers. This could make Meritage Homes Corp more attractive for value investors when compared to the industry median at 1.64.

You can read more about Meritage Homes Corp’s key financial metrics like shareholder yield, price-to-free-cash-flow and EV/EBITDA ratio, or learn more about its Momentum and Growth Grades, by subscribing to A+ Investor.

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Other Homebuilding Stock Grades

Value is just one of the five Stock Grades included in our A+ Investor service. AAII members can see the top-graded stocks—those with grades of A or B for value, growth, momentum, earnings estimate revisions and quality—on the A+ Stock Grades Screener.

Also, if you want full access to all of AAII’s premium services, you can subscribe to one convenient bundled plan called AAII Platinum where you can try out A+ Investor, AAII Dividend Investing, the Stock Superstars Report, Growth Investing and VMQ Stocks. With the other premium services, you can dive deep into additional metrics, portfolios, commentary and information about Homebuilding stocks as well as other industrys.

Choosing Which of the 3 Best Homebuilding Stocks Is Right for You

Choosing which value stocks to invest in will ultimately depend on your individual goals and allocation; however, comparing similar value stocks in the same industry can help you analyze which might be better investments for you in the long run. So, let’s take a look at the Value Grade for all of our stocks.

  • Green Brick Partners Inc stock has a Value Grade of A.
  • M/I Homes Inc stock has a Value Grade of A.
  • Meritage Homes Corp stock has a Value Grade of A.

Now that you have a bit more background about each of the 3 undervalued stocks in the Homebuilding industry as well as their overall grades, it’s time for you to conduct additional research to see if these could fit your portfolio needs based on your goals and risk tolerance. AAII can help you figure out both and identify which investments align with what works best for you.

We do so through a program of education that teaches you to invest for yourself and become an effective manager of your own wealth—no more relying on others for your financial independence. You can rely on AAII for timeless articles on financial planning and stock-picking, unbiased research and actionable analysis that makes you a better investor.

A+ Investor adds to that qualitative teaching by giving you a powerful data suite that helps you whittle down investment decisions to find stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or mutual funds that meet your needs.

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Additional Resources About Homebuilding Stocks

Want to learn more about Homebuilding stocks to see if they could be the right investment for you? Check out some additional resources and articles to help you on your financial journey.

AAII Disclaimer

We make no representations or warranties that any investor will, or is likely to, achieve profits similar to those shown, because past, hypothetical or simulated performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Before making an investment decision, you should consider your circumstances and whether the information on our content is applicable to your situation. This information was prepared in good faith and we accept no liability for any errors or omissions. The full disclaimer can be read here.



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