What Investments Do You Need?
by Charles Rotblut | October 05, 2017
While working on a new presentation about portfolio strategies, it occurred to me that there is an important question I should address: What investments does an individual investor need in their portfolio? Not specific names, but rather what types of investments. It’s a question that is not necessarily easy for many investors to answer. It’s also a question that many (but not all) investment companies, financial advisers and sales people are often too eager to answer in a way that is beneficial to their compensation.
The most universal answer I can give is common stocks, bonds and cash. These are the three core assets nearly every investor should use as the cornerstones for their portfolios. Stocks have historically provided the best long-term total returns, thanks to price appreciation and dividends. Bonds offer income and a ballast against the volatility of stocks. Cash is ideal for shorter-term liquidity.
Combined, these three asset classes provide good diversification, especially when properly allocated to. While such a mix may sound overly simplistic, getting this basic allocation right over the long term is a high hurdle for many investors. Aversion to losses, too much emphasis on current news and data and overconfidence all cause investors to fail at simply sticking to a well-thought-out mixture of stocks, bonds and cash. Focus first on this basic mix and then, if you have the discipline or particular needs, consider other types of investments.
In order of importance, I would put real estate investment trusts (REITs) next. These real estate investments have provided total returns similar to those that small-cap stocks have realized since the 1970s, but they don’t always move in lockstep with stocks overall. As such, they offer the dual benefit of diversification and favorable returns. Their relative lack of tax efficiency makes them best suited for tax-advantaged accounts (e.g., IRAs, Roth IRAs, etc.).
Annuities can play a role in retirees’ portfolios. The big advantage of annuities is their guaranteed stream of income. As long as the contract holder stays alive, a stream of income will be paid. They won’t make a person wealthy, however, and generally should only be used by those in or nearing retirement. Annuity buyers can encounter overly aggressive sales pitches and high commission products, so it’s important to be prudent and ask questions. Focus on immediate and deferred (including qualified longevity annuity) contracts. Tread very carefully with variable annuities, or simply avoid them outright. Keep in mind that the more your Social Security and pension benefits cover your fixed expenses, the less you need annuities.
Like annuities, life insurance can work well when properly used. Plain-vanilla term life insurance is good for those seeking to protect their immediate families should the unfortunate occur during their working years (e.g., being in fatal car accident before the kids are sent off to college). Whole and universal life policies can make sense from an estate planning perspective for those who are affluent. Be mindful of costs, ask lots of questions and make sure you understand what might cause the policy to lapse. As is the case with annuities, be careful about who you buy from.
There is no doubt that commodities can add to a portfolio’s diversification. Their actual benefit, however, is not anywhere near to the benefit realized by simply getting the basic mix of stocks, bonds and cash right over the long term. Hence, their low ranking in terms of importance. If someone were to allocate to commodities, I would suggest focusing first on gold and master limited partnerships (MLPs). Gold is not correlated to most other investments over the long term. How correlated it is to inflation is even debatable. MLPs are a play on energy usage. MLPs are more complicated from a tax standpoint—a factor that should be taken into consideration. While futures contracts and certain exchange-traded products can give more direct exposure to energy prices, I think avoiding dealing with constant contract expirations is a better strategy for most investors.
There are obviously other asset classes and types of investments to choose from. Most investors can safely avoid them. While some of you may have had/are having success with options, currencies, hedge funds, private equity and other investments not mentioned here, they are what I consider to be either speculative, only suitable for certain groups or discretionary.
- How Investors Miss Big Profits – Data from research firm DALBAR shows how investors’ behavior leads them to underperform the very mutual funds they invest in.
- Retirement Readiness Is Being Assessed in the Wrong Manner – In this interview about retirement income, Moshe Milevsky gave a framework for determining how much of an allocation to annuities is warranted.
The percentage of individual investors describing their six-month outlook for stocks as “neutral” is at its lowest level in nearly six months. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey also shows increases in both optimism and pessimism.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rebounded by 2.3 percentage points to 35.6%. Even with the increase, optimism remains below its historical average of 38.5% for the 35th time this year.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, fell 6.3 percentage points to 31.6%. Neutral sentiment was last lower on April 26, 2017 (30.2%). The drop follows what had been a nine-week high. This is the 23rd consecutive week that neutral sentiment is above its historical average of 31.0%.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, rose 4.1 percentage points to 32.8%. The increase puts pessimism back above its long-term historical average of 30.5% for the first time in four weeks.
This is the seventh time in the past 10 weeks with a bearish sentiment reading above its historical average. Since the start of the year, there have been 23 weeks with an above-average level of pessimism. In contrast, bullish sentiment has only been above average in five out of this year’s 40 weekly sentiment readings as noted above.
Political drama in Washington remains at the forefront of many individual investors’ minds. (Many are skeptical about the prospects of tax reform being passed, as the answers to this week’s special question show.) Valuations are also playing a role, creating concern among some about stocks being overpriced and potentially leading to a drop in prices. Others, however, are encouraged by the continuing economic and earnings growth.
This week’s special question asked AAII members to describe how their sentiment toward the stock market is being influenced by the prospects for tax reform. The majority of respondents (57%) said their sentiment is not being influenced. Many in this group either expressed skepticism about the likelihood of tax reform passing or are waiting to see what legislation Congress actually passes. Approximately one-third (33%) of respondents said the prospects for tax reform are causing them to be more optimistic about the short-term direction of stock prices. Some of these respondents think the proposed tax cuts will help to boost economic and/or earnings growth, though others in this group said their optimism depends on whether or not the proposal is actually signed into law. About 11% of respondents have a negative viewpoint, with several either criticizing the proposed tax cuts or expressing concerns about the impact the tax cuts will have on the national debt.
Here is a sampling of the responses:
- “I am not optimistic about Congress passing any meaningful reform at this time, consequently I am not giving this much consideration.”
- “I don’t think tax reform will get through without changes and that will dampen growth prospects for the market.”
- “I think that the lower company tax rates will increase earnings and stock prices.”
- “Our economy needs tax reform badly; I am more positive about the market if it passes.”
- “The market is acting positively toward the prospects for tax reform, which may not happen. This could be a problem.”

Bullish: 35.6%, up 2.3 points
Neutral: 31.6%, down 6.3 points
Bearish: 32.8%, up 4.1 points
Bullish: 38.5%
Neutral: 31.0%
Bearish: 30.5%
September 28, 2017 A Big Argument for Buying and Then Monitoring
September 21, 2017 It’s Not Just the Fed’s Balance Sheet That’s Changing
September 14, 2017 Equifax, Plus Observations From the Morningstar ETF Conference
September 7, 2017 Would You Pay $800 for an Asset Worth $432?
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