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Bond Yields’ Role as a Recession Warning Signal

by AAII Staff | May 14, 2019

Bond Convexity: What Is It, and Why Should You Care?

		As a bond yield decreases, its price rises at an increasing rate, whereas a bond’s price falls at a decreasing rate as its yield increases. This phenomenon is known as convexity. A bond with more convexity will offer you more upside if rates decrease while promising less downside if rates increase. More »

Bond Yields’ Role as a Recession Warning Signal

Campbell Harvey’s 1986 University of Chicago dissertation was the first paper to identify inverted bond yield curves as preceding recessions. He spoke with AAII’s Charles Rotblut just after the yield curve inverted in April 2019 about his model and how investors should interpret it. More »
		Campbell Harvey


The Factors Driving Dividend Policy

An analysis of global dividend policies attributed the rationale for companies to pay and raise their dividends to many factors, including communicating information, so-called “agency costs,” tax policy and a company’s maturation. More »


You CAN Lose With Bonds

You can lose principal in a bond investment, and you can make money in a bond. This is true whether you hold them individually, or collectively in the form of a bond mutual fund. More »

Member Question
Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Trump is handling the economy?

A) Approve
B) Disapprove
C) No opinion

Be sure to vote on this week’s question for the opportunity to offer your insights on our open-ended question.

Previous Week’s Results
How interested are you in socially responsible investing, the investing approach that aims to incorporate environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors into investment decisions?

I am not interested at all in socially responsible investing : 70%

Somewhat, I do not currently invest based on ESG factors but plan to shortly : 25%

Very, I actively select investments based on ESG factors : 5%

Poll results are as of 9 a.m. (Central) on Monday. 1,068 respondents.

AAII Survey: Majority of Retail Investors Uninterested in Socially Responsible Investing

		While socially responsible investing (SRI), or social investment, has been getting more press these days, we wanted to see whether individual investors were selecting investments based on environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors. It seems that appearances can be deceiving. More »

AAII Investor Classroom: Investing in Bonds

		Think of the bond market as a mystery wrapped in an enigma? You are not alone. But this AAII classroom—a member exclusive—pulls back the curtain so that you can analyze individual bonds with confidence. More »

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