Investors’ Market Outlook Most Influenced by Low Interest Rates and Trade Disputes

This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members what factors are influencing their six-month outlook for stocks. The most frequently named factor is low interest rates. Approximately 34% of respondents state that interest rate policy is limiting their investment options. Other respondents from this survey (26%) state that trade disputes are the biggest influence on their outlook. About 21% say political turmoil and the upcoming election are the biggest influences on their outlook. Finally, 18% of respondents say earnings growth and economic data are the major factors influencing their outlook for stocks.

Here is a sampling of the responses:

• “General turmoil in Congress and uncertainty in China trade deal.”
• “Unsettling political issues in Washington; worldwide slowdown (I think); unsettled trade issues, very long bull market.”
• “Low interest rates; positive gross domestic product (GDP) growth; equities represent the best alternative to fixed-income return.”
• “Election year. Companies will hold on until 2021, though spenders have employment and still want to spend.”

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