The forthcoming sunset of many of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act’s (TCJA) provisions creates an opportunity for the next Congress. Elected officials on both sides of the aisle could strike a grand bargain that addresses the tax code, the national debt, Social Security and government-funded investments.

I am pessimistic that this will happen.

Partisanship is high. Political commentators are focused on riling up their side for reasons of viewership, readership and—in the case of social media—followers. All too often, the focus is on winning and being pure to an ideology instead of pragmatically solving this country’s problems and challenges.

Furthermore, Republicans have the numbers in Congress to pass through legislation on a party-line vote. They won’t need the help of Democrats to pass new tax legislation as long as they can limit or avoid defections in their own party.

I expect that a Republican-led Congress won’t allow the TCJA’s provisions to expire en masse. There is desire on both sides of the aisle to extend the tax cuts targeted toward middle-class taxpayers. There will also be pressure on those in Congress to extend various business tax breaks.

Still, some compromises will be made. Last month, The Wall Street Journal published the article “Republicans’ First Tax-Cut Challenge: How Much Red Ink Can They Live With?,” which discussed “the number.” The number is “the maximum budget deficit increase that Republicans are willing to tolerate” in regard to extending the TCJA’s tax cuts and making other changes president-elect Donald Trump called for on the campaign trail.

Even if Republicans settle on an acceptable size of short-term deficit increases in exchange for projected economic growth (both political parties overestimate how much their initiatives will help the economy), there remains a bigger question: What tax law changes get passed? The ordinary income brackets are just one part of the tax code, as those of you subject to the $10,000 cap on deducting state and local taxes (SALT) know.

The clock will start ticking once the new Congress convenes in January 2025. My gut says Congress will procrastinate on passing the next law until the last minute.

Whenever the new tax legislation is passed (hopefully earlier than I expect), we will update you on the changes being made. This is something we’ve done many times before and will continue to do in the future.

Previewing Our Latest Tax Guide

This year’s tax guide covers 2024 and 2025 taxes.

We added a special callout listing the key provisions in the TCJA that are set to sunset at the end of next year to help you plan accordingly. We also included a section about the final rules regarding inherited individual retirement accounts (IRAs). The big change is that penalties will be assessed if a non-spouse who is subject to the 10-year distribution rule fails to take their required minimum distribution (RMD) next year.

For tax-year 2025, the inflation adjustments will be modest in size across the board. Higher 401(k), 403(b) and Savings Incentive Match Plan for Employees (SIMPLE) IRA catch-up contribution limits will go into effect for individuals who attain age 60, 61, 62 or 63 in 2025.

File Taxes Early and Be Alert for Scams

Regardless of the tax law, scammers will be out in full force.

You can protect yourself by filing as early as possible. Use a secure internet connection if filing online. Go inside the post office if filing by mail. Be wary of those saying they can get you a big tax break.

Most importantly, double-check your return for errors before filing it. My wife double-checks all the numbers I enter into TurboTax every year. This little bit of extra effort helps to avoid headaches resulting from unforced errors.

On behalf of everyone at AAII, have a happy holiday season,