The Great Market Indicator Debate

Join your fellow investors in a debate on two market indicators: the Fed Model versus the yield curve.

Last year, we spent considerable time discussing investor and market sentiment when we launched AAII Sentiment Investing, which tracks more than 10 indicators measuring market breadth, valuation, trends, volatility and sentiment. We’ve been showing how individual investors can use these indicators as a behavioral lens to add to, not replace, a fundamental approach.

This focus on sentiment is not new for AAII. In fact, AAII has conducted the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey for nearly 40 years, polling members each week on where they believe the market is headed over the next six months. The survey has been featured in prominent national newsletters and cited in numerous multiyear academic and practitioner studies on investor behavior.

AAII Sentiment Investing tracks 13 indicators. Even for fundamentally driven investors, market sentiment matters as a filter and sizing tool, helping validate your thesis, calibrate exposure and avoid being early, late or emotionally misaligned with the market.

This month, I encourage you to talk with your fellow investors about one key debate: the Fed Model versus the yield curve.