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Earnings First Cut Stocks

Stocks With the Largest Change in Their Earnings Estimates

Even slight changes in expectations of future earnings or the earnings growth rate can translate into a significant and lasting impact on stock prices.

by John Bajkowski | September 2023

Earnings are a key variable used to value stocks. Even slight changes in expectations of future earnings or the earnings growth rate can translate into a significant and lasting impact on stock prices.

We have two groups of stocks for this issue’s First Cut: The 15 stocks with the largest percentage upward revisions in their current fiscal-year consensus estimates and the 15 with the largest downward revisions.

Stocks passing the upward revisions screen are tracked by at least four analysts and within the past month have had an upward revision of their consensus mean estimates for the current and next fiscal year. The screen also requires that no analysts have lowered their estimates for the current or next fiscal year during the past month.

Stocks passing the downward revisions screen are tracked by at least four analysts and within the past month have had a downward revision of their consensus mean estimates for the current and next fiscal year. The screen also requires that no analysts raised their estimates for the current or next fiscal year during the past month.

The table below also provides the range of fiscal-year estimates and the count of analysts changing their estimates during the past month.

Stocks With the Largest Earnings Estimate Revisions

Discussion

Don P from USA posted over 2 years ago:

Earnings Revisions are neither predictable nor accurate . What is the margin of error for earnings revisions? If the Federal Reserve cannot predict the effect of interest rate hikes that takes nine to 18 months , how can a company be better with their limited amount of historical data in duration of one year or less .


BARRY J from TX posted over 2 years ago:

Based on the increasing number of revised estimates, I have come to believe that stock analysts are mostly people who were drummed out of their jobs at the weight-guessing booths at state fair carnivals because they were so bad at guessing. This explains why there are so many estimate revisions and why the remaining carnival weigh-guessers are so accurate. It's a case of survivorship bias.


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