Advocating the Paycheck Strategy for Lifetime Investing

A predictable flow of cash income can be obtained by holding a ladder of high-quality bonds.

The Paycheck Strategy for Lifetime Investing is outside of the current investment paradigm of professional investment advisers, but we believe it can be the basis for a strategy to ensure a flow of income.

Instead of focusing on periodic investment gains and losses, our strategy focuses on buying individual bonds that pay current interest for a retiree’s cash flow. We also suggest buying deferred-interest (zero-coupon) bonds to provide a lump sum of cash at some specific time in the future. Creating a predictable cash flow will enable you to focus on the important activities or people in your life without worrying that the markets are moving against you and you have to take action. If you have enough income from other sources (e.g., pensions) to live on and you do not need the current cash flow from your individual bonds, then the cash flow from your bonds can be reinvested for growth at a compound rate of interest.

Unlike institutions and corporations that may live for centuries, an individual has a finite life. An individual investor needs to know how much cash he or she will have to live on in order to tailor his or her lifestyle accordingly. We believe that you should match the due date of your bonds to payment of your known obligations. In addition, you should have enough cash flow to sustain yourself currently or be able to set aside some of your cash flow to increase your principal at a predictable compound rate of return.

Your bonds can come due over the course of years, thereby returning your principal in a laddered succession. Your bond ladder should be custom made for you to meet your financial and life objectives. As we write this, a ladder of longer-term bonds maturing between 15 and 25 years provides the most return. Though you may worry that you might not outlive long-term bonds, we counter that they will ideally be short-term bonds by the time your heirs inherit them.

Our strategy focuses on creating a predictable cash flow from a portfolio of high-quality individual bonds that have a very low credit risk profile. Our strategy is simple, straightforward and easy to understand. However, being outside the accepted paradigm of the diversified portfolio, it may be difficult to accept. Here are the principles:

  • Financial independence is the goal. The method is to generate predictable cash flow from a portfolio of high-quality individual bonds that you can draw upon if and when needed to provide a supplement if you are working part-time, and to replace your paycheck if you are no longer working. The custom bond ladder is used to create a sufficient cash flow to underpin retirement investing.
  • Paycheck creation is the method. Semiannual interest payments from your portfolio of individual bonds provide comfort. This is a paycheck you can count on regardless of what your other sources of income are. Accordingly, we believe that you should let your cash flow needs drive your investment strategy, not hoped-for gains from a diversified portfolio. This is the guiding principal of our strategy.
  • This is a strategy for individuals. Institutions can live indefinitely. However, unlike institutions, individuals have finite lives and may not be able to ride out market volatility. The timing of market highs may not coincide with your need to withdraw funds. If you are dependent on investment gains for income and there is a timing mismatch, your ability to have enough cash to fund a successful retirement may be compromised.

Trading Versus Buy-and-Hold Bond Investing

Mark-to-market accounting is for institutions, not individuals. Institutions must “mark to market,” which means they must record gains and losses on their portfolio periodically. We believe that individual investors need not and should not be distracted by mark-to-market accounting when they are building a bond portfolio.

The financial industry focuses on trading strategies, hoping for asset growth that may or may not materialize when you need to draw upon your assets for living expenses. Anticipation of high returns often justifies high annual fees. The reality may be different. For example, you may incur difficult equity markets during your retirement, reducing the size of withdrawals you can make.

Financial Independence

The important goal of a reliable paycheck for individual investors is obscured by the focus on gains and losses inherent in all trading strategies. Paycheck creation can provide financial independence, which we define as the ability to live on your interest income from a portfolio of bonds. You need merely look at your yearly predictable interest paycheck rather than the current value of your portfolio.

Those who invested in high-quality individual bonds saw no reduction in their investment paycheck or in the value of their bonds after the stock market crashes in 1987, 2000 and 2008. We know that bonds will fluctuate in value; however, the cash flow from individual bonds will remain the same. Some pundits will say the failing of bonds is that rising interest rates will result in losses. We respond by saying that if you are able to reinvest some or, if your other sources of income allow, all of the income and also the principal when bonds are called or come due, that rising interest rates are the upside case. Would you rather reinvest at higher or lower yields? And remember, unlike any other asset class, individual bonds are self-liquidating, meaning they come due at a specified date.

Bond investors often achieve their financial independence by being portfolio people. We define that as people who draw cash flow from a number of sources. For example, you might have income coming in from a pension, bonds, Social Security or even part-time work. Investing in bonds may enable you to delay taking Social Security at an early date if you have not already claimed it. The cash flow from the bonds would substitute for the Social Security income. It is well-known that if you can delay taking Social Security until your normal retirement age of 66—or 67 if you were born in 1960 or later—your benefit increase would be a predictable 8% per year, much more than any other conservative investment.

Bond Ladder

A bond ladder of high-quality individual bonds customized for your specific situation is the foundation of the paycheck strategy because there is a predictable cash flow and a predictable return of principal. Every year you could have a bond coming due, returning its face value to you, as well as regular interest payments. For example, if you owned $10,000 Oklahoma State Water Resources Board Revolving Fund bonds due April 1, 2025, the $10,000 would be returned to you on the due date. Meanwhile, every year you would be paid the interest on the bonds semiannually. You need not incur any fees or trading costs once the bonds are purchased.

This paycheck earned from your bond portfolio will supplement your Social Security and other sources of income and bring you within a foreseeable range of financial independence. If not, you should consider the possibility of generating some earned income and/or a reduction of your cost of living to a place of equilibrium, predictability and comfort. As The Economist quoted investment adviser William Bernstein saying, “The purpose of investing is not simply to optimize returns and make yourself rich. The purpose is not to die poor.”

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Discussion

John Ristow from IL posted over 11 years ago:

Where would a person obtain advice on putting together an appropriate bond portfolio?


R Scher from New York posted over 11 years ago:

Would closed end shorter term bond funds be equally as good as suggested in Barron's?


Charles Rotblut from IL posted over 11 years ago:

Unless you are holding defined maturity bond funds, bond funds never mature. The advantage of holding individual bonds is that they mature, giving you a predictable (assuming the issuer does not default) stream of cash flows. -Charles


Hildy Richelson from PA posted over 11 years ago:

If you would like information on creating a bond portfolio, please contact us, John. You can find our contact information at www.allbondportfolios.com.


Hildy Richelson from PA posted over 11 years ago:

A closed end fund is not the same as purchasing an individual bond. Closed end funds are leveraged, which means they have more risk. Also a closed end fund never comes due. You have to sell the closed end fund in order to get your invested funds back. In addition, closed end funds have management fees, while when holding an individual bond has none. The key is to purchase high quality bonds that you can hold until maturity.


Hildy Richelson from PA posted over 11 years ago:

We recommend zero coupon bonds as part of a ladder because you can knowingly plan for a return of principal at a specified time. It is like purchasing a target date fund that promises to give you your money back at a specified time. The difference is that the fund has fees and transaction costs, while the zero coupon bond has none. You purchase it at a discount and it comes due at face value. If what you want is a stream of income currently, then you would want to purchase bonds that pay interest twice or more times every year. It is more defensive to purchase current interest bonds if you believe that interest rates are going to rise because you will have cash flow to reinvest at higher rates. The yield-to-maturity computation assumes that you are going to reinvest the interest payments at the same rate at which you purchased the bonds. With a zero coupon bond, the yield-to-maturity you are quoted is the yield you will actually earn. With current interest bonds, the yield may actually be the same,higher or lower than that quoted, depending upon whether you reinvest the interest at the same, higher or lower yields. If you are not going to reinvest the interest payments, then the yield-to-maturity computation gives you a way to compare one bond to another when you are buying the bonds.


John Klein from OH posted over 11 years ago:

I am surprised that the article did not include typical or average cash returns over the life of the bonds, or the high-low % for the different kinds of appropriate bonds. - John Klein jklein@jklein.com


Joanne D from PA posted over 11 years ago:

Could you please a provide a sample bond ladder and the type of expected and realistic returns possible in this current yield environment ? Additionally, what is the ratio of short term versus intermediate and long term bonds you would propose?


John Broderick from OR posted over 11 years ago:

This plan does not provide for one time costs, such as a new car, new roof, loan to children, etc. My plans have been derailed by costs like these. JB


Norman Holcomb from MA posted over 11 years ago:

It would be interesting to see the investment/ income results of a bond and preferred stock portfolio, diversified with various rated securities, over the long term. I believe that a patient, conservative bond and preferred stock investor has much higher return potential than is generally believed or represented in the mainstream investment media.


Peter Rasmussen from MN posted over 11 years ago:

I totally agree with your thesis. What about using a sequence/ladder of ETFs like (for instance) BSCG that will mature in 2016? Would these types of target date maturing ETFs give close to the same result, without the risk of individual bonds defaulting?


Charles Rotblut from IL posted over 11 years ago:

Peter, The answer is not exactly because you are buying a fund instead of individual bonds. I discussed the pros and cons of defined maturity bonds in the AAII Journal. -Charles


Hildy Richelson from PA posted over 11 years ago:

Hello Joan, Ladders are personalized for individual needs. We have been purchasing longer dated bonds because that is where the yield is. Given the choice of earning less than 1 percent or 4 percent, we choose 4 percent. The media was predicting rising short-term interest rates, but that did not happen. Rates as of 11/12/14 look something like this. Taxable municipal bonds from the State of Hawaii rated AA2/AA/AA yield approximately 3.32 percent in 2025 and 4 percent in 2034. Tax-exempt interest is about 3 percent in 2028 and 3.52 percent to 3.72 percent in 2034, depending on the coupon and call date. We see some 4 percent returns out 30 years.


Steve Farrar from Arizona posted over 9 years ago:

We have been doing this strategy since 2004, using a professional bond management team at UBS to build a tax free municipal bond ladder with an average maturity of six years consisting of A, AA and AAA bonds. Typically the coupon (tax free interest) on the portfolio has been 4.3% and the total return of the strategy (including capital gains realized on the buying and selling of individual bonds) has been a little over 5%. Because I did not retire until 2012, the gains realizes up to that time were all reinvested into the account. During the Great Recession of 2008, the portfolio value dipped briefly to -5% (while equity markets were down 40%+). Municipal bond values quickly recovered and by 2009 our account value was again positive while we continued to receive the 4.3% interest. For the .5% management fee we get the benefit of bond research to vette the safety of the bonds as well as buying and selling to take advantage of opportunities in the yield curve. We also have access to the team to ask questions about our account, the securities selected, and the trends and issues of the municipal bond market. From time to time developments in the bond market raise questions. For example, the Detroit default on their municipal debt and the changing liquidity of the bond market due to federal regulations imposed on banks post 2008 create changes in the market that are important for investors to understand. Likewise the pension pressures on municipalities that have increased in the last ten years create risks that professional security research can help mitigate. And finally, it is important for investors to understand the differences in risk profile of GO and revenue bonds, etc. Since retirement we have yet to draw any income from our bond portfolio. It represents about 80% of our liquid net worth. Instead, given the strange and volatile investment market we have been in we have been liquidating other assets in our portfolio for living expenses. We expect it will be another two to three years before we need to begin using portions of our federally tax free income from our muncipal bond portfolio for living expenses. By that time we expect that we will need to utilize only about 60% of our annual income from the account. Due to that fact, we should continue to see our account value increase while meeting all our living expenses. Because my wife will begin taking her pension and social security in six years and we also have annuities from which we intend to turn on income in seven years, we expect - based on the assumption that our returns from our bond account will continue to be in the 5% annualized range - that our living expenses as a percentage of our total annual return from our bond portfolio will drop to around 40% in seven years. This will leave us a large surplus of income to save for reinvestment, or to utilize for other needs or desires should they arise. Based on this, it appears to us that we have created a lifetime paycheck that meets all our living expenses and provides us a healthy 'growth' bonus as well. This accomplishes the goals stated by financial planners that retiree portfolios should provide both income and growth while controlling investment fees. We can do this while controlling volatility of our asset values of our portfolio. Of course, we remain actively knowledgeable of the macro investment environment as well as changes in the municipal market. No asset class is without risks and complexities. If our assessment of the risks of municipal bonds changes in a negative manner, we remain open to allocating some of our net worth into corporate bonds. We actually have a managed convertible bond account with Wellesley. They have a strong long term track record of delivering annualized returns of better than 8% with a volatility lower than the S&P. We like convertible bonds because while they pay a coupon from the bond and the investor can recover principal from holding the bond until maturity, the account values can also increase during bull markets in stocks. We like the relative predictability of bonds better than stocks and know ourselves well enough that we don't do well during harsh bear markets when equities are down 40-50%. Because we have constructed a reasonable life style that enables us to live below the interest payments generated by our bonds, and have also created other sources of income from social security, my wife's pension, and various annuities, we simply don't need to fret about major bear markets and have predictability of income. We value the psychological benefits of this approach. In essence through planning ahead for retirement we have been able to create an income stream that is predictable and replaces all our pre-retirement income. It is like we are still employed. Plus, our tax returns are simple, and we feel somewhat insulated from the vagaries of changes in tax rates in the tax code we feel are coming as the government continues to run large deficits.


Peter Mc Dougall from TX posted over 9 years ago:

Question to Steve Farrar Could you give more information on Wellesley? The only Wellesley I know is the vanguard Wellesley fund but they don't buy individual bonds as they are a fund. Like the idea of individual convertible bonds. Peter


Gary Jaffe from CA posted over 9 years ago:

The Paycheck Strategy makes total sense but the article omits key asset classes. Using bonds leaves too much money on the table. I have owned a portfolio of closed-end preferred stock funds for 25 years. My annual return has been 10.0% vs. 9.7% for the S&P 500 and 6.2% for the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index. My portfolio returns have been less risky (standard deviation) and achieved a higher Sharpe ratio than the S&P 500 (.54 vs .36). My portfolio currently yields 8% (paid monthly). It is a broadly diversified portfolio composed of mostly investment grade securities. I can spend 6% of the income and leave 2% to cover inflation. I receive enough income so I don't have to tap my principal. (So much for the assertion that you can only spend 4% of your retirement portfolio annually). I don't need to decide which stocks to sell to generate monthly income, I don't need to cut my withdrawal rate after nasty market plunges, and I don't need to perform hundreds of Monte Carlo simulations to ensure I don't run out of money. I have built a time-tested retirement pension plan that beats the S&P 500 with less risk and automatically churns out 8% income. Who needs common stocks? Or bonds? I don't care that my preferred funds don't have a specific maturity because I'm not ever going to sell them. GJ


Hildy Richelson from PA posted over 9 years ago:

Hello Steve, You might want to check out our website and look at what we charge. It is a lot less than UBS to advise on and create a bond portfolio. Gary, with rates negative in many parts of the world, you have to wonder about the credit quality of a portfolio yielding 8 percent or more. Last year CALPers, the California pension plan made .5% and were happy that the return was not negative as were the returns on other pension plans. If buying preferred stock was such a slam dunk, why does a professionally run fund have such a problem? Individual bonds create a reliability of cash flow, and a return of principal, unlike any other investment.


Linda Campbell from WA posted over 9 years ago:

This is for Peter M from Texas - You asked about Wellesley. That happens to be a Vanguard fund, as you mentioned, I have happily owned for years. To answer your question specifically though, you can find Wellesley @ www.wellesleyinvestment.com All the best!


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