Patrick O’Shaughnessy’s Millennial Investor Strategy

The 25 best-ranking stocks identified by Patrick O’Shaughnessy’s strategy.

Charles Rotblut leads a class in AAII's new Essential Investing Video Course. Go to https://www.aaii.com/ves for more information and to subscribe.

Patrick O’Shaughnessy gives five traits millennial investors should look for in a stock in his book, “Millennial Money: How Young Investors Can Build a Fortune” (Palgrave Macmillan, 2014). Those traits are value, earnings quality, shareholder orientation, return on invested capital (ROIC) and momentum. He says owning stocks with these characteristics will lead to a portfolio that is both unique and performs well over time. He gives a summary of his approach in this issue’s Stock Strategies article.

Rather than requiring absolute values for each criteria (e.g., return on invested capital of at least X%), Patrick uses composite rank scores. A ranking is assigned to each criterion to determine how favorable or unfavorable a company is relative to all other stocks for that characteristic. A composite score is then calculated based on the rankings for each criterion.

Three of the criteria, price-to-free cash flow (a measure of value), 26-week relative price strength (a measure of momentum) and return on invested capital, are built into AAII’s stock screening and fundamental database, Stock Investor Pro. Rankings for price-to-free cash flow and relative price strength are also calculated by the program. Cash from operations less net income divided by market capitalization (earnings quality) and cash from financing divided by market capitalization (shareholder orientation) require the use of custom fields.

Calculating the rankings and the composite scores requires the use of a spreadsheet. The list of passing companies was exported to Microsoft Excel. The inverse of price-to-free-cash-flow ranking was calculated to assign higher rankings to the stocks with the lowest valuations for purposes of determining the composite score. Rankings were calculated in Excel for earnings quality, shareholder orientation and return on invested capital. The individual ranks for each criterion were then added together to create a stock’s composite score. Higher scores are better.

The universe of stocks was restricted to exchange-listed stocks. Stocks within the financial sector were excluded because of the structure of their financial statements. Passing stocks were required to have the data necessary for calculating all five criteria and the composite score. These restrictions narrowed the set of available stocks to 1,660. The 25 stocks with the highest composite scores make this issue’s First Cut.

Fields for use in SI Pro are shown below the table. You can download instructions for creating the screen and a spreadsheet of the Excel ranking formulas here.

Company (Ticker) Value
 Rank*
 (%)
Earnings
 Quality
 Rank  
(%)
Shareholder
 Orientation 
 Rank 
(%)
ROIC   
Rank
(%)
Momentum 
Rank 
(%)
Composite 
Score
 
 
 
Industry
Otelco (OTEL)
98
98
99
100
56
451
Communications Services
Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO)
91
82
95
96
81
445
Software & Programming
CYS Investments (CYS)
99
99
100
84
60
442
Real Estate Operations
EDENOR S.A. (ADR) (EDN)
74
98
74
99
91
436
Electric Utilities
American Capital Agency (AGNC)
85
95
100
73
67
420
Real Estate Operations
Paragon Offshore PLC (PGN)
99
99
99
60
62
420
Oil Well Services & Equip
Pampa Energia S.A. (ADR) (PAM)
89
94
44
95
96
418
Electric Utilities
Internet Gold Golden Lines (IGLD)
100
100
100
62
56
418
Communications Services
Amsurg Corp. (AMSG)
89
76
85
90
76
416
Healthcare Facilities
Dynex Capital (DX)
94
96
99
76
49
414
Real Estate Operations
Oci Resources LP (OCIR)
94
85
87
92
56
414
Non-Metallic Mining
Flanigan’s Enterprises (BDL)
85
82
91
63
93
414
Restaurants
Transportadora de Gas del Sur (TGS)
74
88
82
78
88
410
Oil & Gas Operations
Spark Energy (SPKE)
93
58
97
99
62
408
Natural Gas Utilities
Envirostar (EVI)
89
90
93
97
32
401
Misc. Capital Goods
Daxor Corp. (DXR)
90
97
97
89
26
398
Medical Equip & Supplies
Argan (AGX)
96
93
27
94
87
397
Construction Services
Weight Watchers Int’l (WTW)
88
71
52
96
89
395
Personal Services
Orbitz Worldwide (OWW)
83
84
52
98
77
394
Recreational Activities
Skilled Healthcare Group (SKH)
88
92
95
26
92
393
Healthcare Facilities
URS Corp. (URS)
87
83
95
42
86
393
Construction Services
Zagg (ZAGG)
89
86
95
29
91
390
Apparel/Accessories
Cablevision Systems Corp. (CVC)
60
85
92
75
78
390
Broadcasting & Cable TV
Verizon Communications (VZ)
70
74
85
89
73
390
Communications Services
HealthSouth Corp. (HLS)
58
74
82
93
81
388
Healthcare Facilities
*Calculated as the inverse of the rank shown in SI Pro, to give stocks with lower valuations higher scores.
Source: AAII’s Stock Investor Pro/Thomson Reuters. Data as of 10/10/2014.
 

 

Data Category Conn Field Operator Factor Compare to
% Rank   % Rank-Price/FCFPS >=   0
Custom Field And POShaugh-EPSQuality Not Equal   0
Custom Field And POShaugh-ShOrientation Not Equal   0
Ratios And Return on inv cap Y1 >   -9999.9
% Rank And % Rank-Rel Strength 26 week >=   0
Company Information And Exchange Not Equal   Over the counter
Company Information And Sector Not Equal   Financial
           
Custom Fields Used in Screen:
POShaugh-EPSQuality ([Cash from operations 12m]-[Net income 12m])/[Market Cap Q1]
POShaugh-ShOrientation [Cash from financing 12m]/[Market Cap Q1]
           
Formulas for Ranking in Excel (with 1661 as last row in array)*
With % Rank-Price/FCFPS in column C Formula in Value Rank column D is   =100-C2
With POShaugh-EPSQuality in column F Formula in Earnings Quality Rank column G is    =(PERCENTRANK.INC(F$2:F$1661,F2))*100
With POShaugh-ShOrientation in column I Formula in Shareholder Orientation Rank column J is =(1-(PERCENTRANK.INC(I$2:I$1661,I2)))*100
With Return on inv cap Y1 in column L Formula in ROIC Rank column M is    =(PERCENTRANK.INC(L$2:L$1661,L2))*100
With % Rank-Rel Strength 26 week in column O Formula in Momentum Rank column P is   =O2
    Formula in Composite Score column is   =P2+M2+J2+G2+D2
*Array number will change depending on total number of companies exported.

Discussion

Ken from Indiana posted over 11 years ago:

Will this screen be updated periodically at AAII, or do we have to purchase SI Pro and set it up ourselves to continue following and using it?


Charles Rotblut from IL posted over 11 years ago:

Ken, You will have to post Stock Investor Pro and set the screen up yourself. -Charles


Tom Tucker from Pennsylvania posted over 11 years ago:

Thank you for the complete description of how to implement Patrick O’Shaughnessy’s screen in Stock Investor Pro and Excel. By including the SIP screening criteria, SIP custom field formulas, and Excel formulas, I can replicate O’Shaughnessy’s screen with confidence. I hope this level of detail sets the standard for the Journal’s descriptions of stock screens in the future.


Carl Brady from Nebraska posted over 11 years ago:

As I posted on the article by Patrick O'Shaughnessy, I use the similar strategy "Trending Value" by James P O'shoughnessy - I assume the father of Patrick. contrary to the above article, I include financial stocks and have had very good results overall for the last three years (remember the market has been a strong bull). I post my top ten (percent) of stocks- using programs I wrote and Ycharts data - on my web site www.invessense.net usually once a week. For more info see my web site


Andrew from Mass posted over 11 years ago:

I've followed the Millennial Invest blog for sometime and finally purchased the book. Upon reaching the part that I could view his Millennial Money stock screen picks by joining AAII I stepped up for a membership. Upon joining today - I see that a Millennial Money screener is not provided to members. Further it seems I need to pay for another membership SI Pro? Then manually create my own screen following the not so easy instructions above? I see reading back that the language in the book was a bit misleading to make an average reader believe they would have access to a Millennial Invest stock screener (and I read it at face value). Thus I signed on for a 4 year membership today!!! Before I request a refund or rip my hair out trying to create this stock screener might I request or suggest that AAII include the "Millennial Money" screener among their available stock screens??? I was really enjoying the book but after being led to join AAII and still not having access to a stock screen. It has left a bit of a bad taste in my mouth! Charles do you do a Monthly update of the names that appear on your Millennial Money screen?


Jason from BC posted over 11 years ago:

I wanted to post in agreement with the post above. I too have read the "Millennial Money" book and blog; the strategy makes sense to me, and I'd like to try it out. My understanding was that AAII was going to follow this strategy on a monthly basis similar to others it follows. When I first didn't see the strategy included, I thought that it would appear with the update on 14/11/2014. I see that Charles Rotblut has stated that this strategy won't be followed -- I'd also like to add my voice to the poster above and ask you to reconsider. Thanks!


Charles Rotblut from IL posted over 11 years ago:

Andrew and Jason, I can't promise anything or even give you a timetable for a decision to be made, but we are looking into it. Adding a new screen to AAII.com is more complex than it may seem, which is why the Millennial Strategy has not been added so far. -Charles


Dave Gilmer from WA posted over 11 years ago:

Another less time consuming strategy for the busy Millennial is to use one of the many 3-Fund portfolios that are out there. A unique one that I developed myself is a Value-tilted strategy using 3 mutual funds. Much easier to "sell" to a group of people scared out of the market with over 50% of their money in cash and has at least out performed the S&P500 on a risk-adjusted basis up to the 10 year time frame tested. I wrote about it on Seeking Alpha here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2682355-setting-up-a-portfolio-that-millennials-can-relate-to Still any article that tries to reach this group of Millennials is great. So thanks, Dave


SWA from VA posted over 11 years ago:

I'll add on that I read the Millenial Money book and thought the screen would be on AAII as well. That would be great if you can add that screen to your screen library. Also is there a way to screen for shareholder yield (div yield,plus net buybacks, plus net debt paydown)on AAII?


Charles Rotblut from IL posted over 11 years ago:

SWA, You can screen for shareholder orientation or build a custom shareholder yield criterion with Stock Investor Pro. -Charles


John from KS posted over 11 years ago:

I too purchased/read Millennial Money and felt I was misled about subscribing to AAII.com. I have attempted to reach Patrick through email a couple of times and he has yet to respond. Please keep us posted as to your final decision. Thank you, John


Tony Hausner from MD posted over 11 years ago:

What kind of results do you get with this strategy over the last 1 yr, 3 yr, 5 yrs, etc periods? Not sure if that is provided anywhere


Tony Hausner from MD posted over 11 years ago:

I found it in his article.


Vaidy Bala from AB posted over 11 years ago:

I agree with others. We should have stats on performance in1,3, and 5 years for example. We also need to try to use the parameters setting in a screen given to current AAII members for practice. Otherwise, it is only a marketing idea for a separate spin-off.


Jeffrey Mattson from CT posted over 11 years ago:

I have followed the instructions to screen The Millennial strategy. It takes a bit of work to set up but once you do that it is just fine. SI pro is not bad to work with. After a few tries I was able to set up a template for MS excel and it works smoothly. I have not used it long enough to provide any data as to a success rate of the program but will post it in the future. Jump into the program (SI PRO)and follow the directions provided to set up this screen.


Susie Jacobsen from WA posted over 11 years ago:

The Millennial Money Stock Screen is available online at BeatTheStockMarket. But if you want to screen yourself, make sure you rank Price-to-Free Cash Flow Per Share and relative strength MANUALLY in Excel. In their back-testing, the O’Shaugnessy’s screened out smaller-cap stocks first and THEN ranked the remaining companies. Stock Investor Pro’s % Rank fields do the opposite. They create a ranking based on ALL stocks in the database (including tiny microcaps and OTC stocks), which will skew the screen’s results, especially when smaller stocks have factors that are on the extreme end, either high or low (which happens often). If you use Stock Investor Pro’s % Rank fields for Price/FCFPS and % Rank-Rel Strength 26 weeks, you will get different results than what O’Shaugnessy obtained. Even a small difference in the ranking produces quite a different list of stocks. In addition, you can get more precise ranking results with Excel as you can carry the decimal out to several places. In Stock Investor Pro, the rankings have no decimals. Also, make sure you continually adjust the minimum market cap for inflation as O’Shaugnessy mentions in his AAII article. That's what he did in his back-testing. Neglecting to adjust for inflation will result in a different set of companies. Neglecting to adjust for inflation would also let smaller and smaller companies appear in the screen over time, increasing volatility. Thanks to AAII for getting Patrick to write the informative article for AAII. Also, thanks to Patrick for being accessible on Twitter to answer questions about his strategy. I LOVE his book!


Michael Sims from IA posted over 11 years ago:

The article mentions working the 25 stocks selected as 12 different portfolios to reduce fluctuations but I simply don't understand if he is suggesting that you only are reviewing 2 stocks a month so that on a rolling 12 basis, all stocks would be reviewed once. Or is he re-running the list, seeing if two replace any on the list and switch them out. Great article and I don't think this just needs to be promoted to millennial investors. Thanks


Susie Jacobsen from WA posted over 11 years ago:

Michael, He tested monthly, meaning he would run the screen in January and hold those 25 stocks until the next January when the stock screen would be re-run for those 25 stocks. He would then create a 25-stock portfolio for February, and those 25 stocks would also be held a year. So there would be 12 portfolios with 25 stocks each. Interestingly, Patrick recently wrote an blog showing that returns were highest (over 23% per year) if only the top-5 stocks were purchased each month and held for a year. This would give an investor 60 positions, but because there is some overlap from month-to-month, you would have less than 60 different stocks. In the blog, Patrick is testing the improved Value Composite which is found in the AAII article written by Jim O'Shaugnessy in Oct 2013. To find Patrick's blog about buying the top-5 rated stocks, search for "How Concentrated Should You Make Your Value Portfolio." I can be reached at susiepjacobsen@gmail.com if someone has questions. This stuff is fascinating!


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