Why Earnings Season Draws Attention

Investors wait for earnings releases to count the beats and misses, but equally as important is when the report occasions a change in perception.

Fourth-quarter earnings season is underway.

It’s important to remember that investors’ reactions to earnings reports are all about perception. Of course, analyst expectations have a role as well. If a company misses its earnings estimate, the market may punish its stock. However, market reaction goes a step further. If investors are anticipating that a company will miss earnings estimates, there is no “change in perception” when reported earnings come in below the consensus estimate. Alternatively, if investors expect a company to miss earnings estimates but it reports earnings above the consensus, the stock’s “true worth” may be reassessed as investors digest the new information.

If a company that is expected to beat estimates does so, there is no surprise for investors. On the other hand, if a company that has historically beat earnings estimates falls short of expectations, investors will likely punish the stock’s price because of the change in perception that occurs.

This theory has been documented by David Dreman, a well-known investor that I have studied and written about extensively.

Reiterating Dreman’s work leads into my introduction for this month’s CI edition. Our Feature article this month is a snapshot of fourth-quarter 2015 earnings trends from Estimize. Estimize’s website defines their service as follows: “Estimize is an open financial estimates platform which facilitates the aggregation of fundamental estimates from independent, buy-side and sell-side analysts, along with those of private investors and students.” The website states that 17,289 hedge fund, brokerage, independent and amateur analysts contribute to the site, resulting in coverage on over 1,500 stocks each quarter. So not only are analysts contributing earnings estimates to Estimize, but individual investors are too. And they can do it for free.

Estimize has been on CI’s Best of the Web list for a couple years now, and we have continually seen improvements in the website’s tools and functionality. For more information regarding Estimize, check out its website or its FAQ page.

Speaking of Best of the Web, we have updated several categories in this CI edition: tax resources, personal finance and retirement planning. As always, please let us know if you have any websites you use that you think should be analyzed for the Best of the Web list.

In this month’s CI edition, we also review iVIEWMarkets in the On the Internet column. IVIEWMarkets is a new website designed to provide investors with information to make investment decisions. The focus of the site is fundamental and technical analysis investment tools for both the novice and professional investor.

This month’s content aside, I hope everyone had a wonderful Valentine’s Day!

Next month’s CI edition will come right after St. Patrick’s Day.

Saint Patrick’s Day, or the Feast of Saint Patrick, is a cultural and religious celebration held on March 17, the traditional death date of Saint Patrick, the foremost patron saint of Ireland. Whether you’re truly Irish or Irish at heart, Happy St. Patrick’s Day from the Computerized Investing staff.

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