AAII Stock Ideas: A+ Investor Screening Strategies

In these volatile markets, we wanted to make sure our valued members get access to the best information possible to help you navigate the uncertainty. This is why you may have noticed the recent enhancements to our Stock Ideas Update email.

Each week, we are sending you education and stock ideas that are relevant to today’s market. Markets like these expose bargains, so we want to highlight a few ideas that can help you replenish your portfolio through sound strategies with good long-term performance.

If you find this information valuable and want an edge throughout this market volatility, you can access robust stock screens and evaluations through A+ Investor, a suite of rigorous investment tools that includes diversification analysis, stock evaluators and more than 50 stock screens updated every day.

This week, we look at the most popular screening strategies followed by AAII members. These are stock strategies that have been marked the most as “favorite” screens in A+ Investor at AAII.com, and they give an insight into the screening strategies that real investors are following right now. Read on for more on the favorite stock approaches and see a list of the top stocks that are passing these screens right now.

Favorite A+ Investor Screening Strategies

Of the more than 60 stock screening strategies that AAII tracks, some are more popular than others. A+ Investor subscribers can tag approaches to follow and see which companies meet the criteria for their favorite strategies each day.

A+ Investor is AAII’s new suite of tools that helps investors to monitor their investments, discover new opportunities and learn which strategies work (or don’t work). Taking all the screening strategies that members have tagged to follow, A+ Investor looks at the strategies with at least one passing company, tallies how often each screen has been favorited, then ranks those strategies by popularity.

All of the screening strategies that AAII tracks have been developed and backtested using Stock Investor Pro, AAII’s fundamental stock screening and research database program. Many investors choose to follow screens based on specific guru and/or factor strategies. The most widely followed strategies offer a portrait of A+ Investor subscribers.

The first table below summarizes the performance of the favorite guru and factor screening strategies that AAII tracks. Some of the strategies are based on the investment philosophies of such investing “gurus” as Warren Buffett, William O’Neil and James O’Shaughnessy. The screening strategies are also categorized based on the “factors” that underly each strategy. A key at the bottom of the table explains the factor initials, such as value (V), growth (G) and momentum (M).

Strategy Favorites (Ranked by Most Popular Strategy for A+ Investors With at Least One Passing Company)

 

                               
Strategy Annual Price Gain (%) Factors* 
2020
YTD*
1-Yr 3-Yr 5-Yr 10-Yr Since
Incep
V G M S EE Y Q I O
O’Neil’s CAN SLIM Revised 3rd Edition 13.8 (8.8) 10.9 15.7 22.7 18.6   G M          
Stock Market Winners (29.2) (22.1) (1.9) 6.9 14.9 17.4 V G M          
Buffettology: Sustainable Growth 25.5 57.2 15.5 17.2 15.1 12.2   G         Q    
Buffett: Hagstrom 14.7 25.7 11.3 9.7 13.7 13.3 V G         Q    
Estimate Revisions: Up 5% 8.3 10.4 11.4 9.5 14.9 22.1         EE      
Estimate Revisions: Top 30 Up 6.1 11.5 11.4 13.4 17.5 22.1         EE      
Inve$tWare Quality Growth 95.7 67.1 32.3 14.0 16.6 9.6   G              
Foolish Small Cap 8 22.8 20.4 30.9 8.9 14.1 12.1   G M S          
O’Shaughnessy: Tiny Titans (2.6) 26.9 16.5 11.9 13.4 21.1 V   M S          
Buffettology: EPS Growth 18.5 40.7 11.8 13.2 14.8 11.1   G         Q    
*Factors Key: V = Value; G = Growth; M = Momentum; S= Size; EE = Earnings Estimates; Y = Yield; Q = Quality; I = Industry; O = Other.
Source: AAII Stock Investor Pro, Refinitiv. Data as of 8/31/2020.

 

The two most popular screening strategies are O’Neil’s CAN SLIM Revised 3rd Edition and Stock Market Winners. O’Neil’s CAN SLIM Revised strategy is up 13.8% for the year through August 31, 2020, and has an average annual price gain of 22.7% over the last 10 years. The Stock Market Winners approach was developed by Marc Reinganum and stems from a publication by William O’Neil & Co. titled “The Greatest Stock Market Winners: 1970–1983.” The Stock Market Winners approach is down for the year but has an average annual price gain of 14.9% over the last 10 years. For those interested in learning more about the CAN SLIM strategy and seeing a model portfolio based on it, AAII’s Stock Superstars Report uses and writes in detail about O’Neil’s philosophy. You can learn more about the Stock Superstars Report here.

All of the strategy favorites in the table above have strong five- and 10-year average annual performance track records. They all are up for the year through August 31, except for Stock Market Winners and O’Shaughnessy Tiny Titans. The Inve$tWare Quality Growth screening strategy seeks to identify growth companies that have been increasing sales by at least 7% a year over the last one-, three- and five-year periods, as well as fully diluted earnings per share from continuing operations of at least 15% over the same periods. The Inve$tWare Quality Growth approach has a one-year average annual return of 67.1% and is up 95.7% for 2020 as of August 31.

Top Passing Companies From Strategy Favorites

The second table shows 18 of the top passing companies based on the most popular screening strategies among A+ Investor members. The list includes two stocks from each strategy except for the O’Neil’s CAN SLIM Revised 3rd Edition and Foolish Small Cap 8 approaches, which only have one passing company each as of September 4, 2020. Most of the other strategies have several companies that pass the approach’s screening filters.

The Buffett Hagstrom and Estimate Revisions Top 30 Up approaches each have at least 30 passing companies as of September 4. The companies in the table below were selected from the group of passing companies based on the highest A+ Stock Grades for a specific strategy’s most relevant investment factors.

Top Passing Companies (Ranked by A+ Investor Strategy Favorites)

 

Company Ticker Price
(9/4)
($)
Market
Cap
($ Mil)
P/E
Ratio
(x)
Div
Yield
(%)
EPS
Growth
5-Yr
(%)
Strategy
Innovative Industrial Properties IIPR 117.72 2,673.1 42.4 3.6 na O’Neil’s CAN SLIM Rev 3rd Ed
BNCCORP, Inc. BNCC 30.24 104.8 4.4 na na Stock Market Winners
NASB Financial, Inc. NASB 54.50 537.2 5.1 4.0 na Stock Market Winners
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. ANCUF 34.61 38,991.5 15.0 0.6 19.5 Buffettology: Sustainable Grth
Xpel Inc. XPEL 23.57 665.2 44.3 na na Buffettology: Sustainable Grth
Facebook Inc. FB 282.73 829,347.3 36.1 na 17.1 Buffett: Hagstrom
Medifast Inc. MED 160.44 2,007.7 25.1 2.8 na Buffett: Hagstrom
Installed Building Products Inc. IBP 88.82 2,668.5 32.4 na na Estimate Revisions: Up 5%
PennyMac Financial Services Inc. PFSI 50.55 3,690.5 4.4 1.2 na Estimate Revisions: Up 5%
Crowdstrike Holdings Inc. CRWD 125.19 27,917.2 na na na Estimate Revisions: Top 30 Up
Dicks Sporting Goods Inc. DKS 54.90 4,881.6 19.1 2.3 4.0 Estimate Revisions: Top 30 Up
Adobe Inc. ADBE 491.94 243,574.0 64.8 na 15.0 Inve$tWare Quality Growth
D.R. Horton Inc. DHI 68.23 25,662.9 12.4 1.0 18.6 Inve$tWare Quality Growth
Safehold Inc. SAFE 58.43 2,933.2 57.9 1.1 na Foolish Small Cap 8
WidePoint Corporation WYY 0.58 45.8 43.7 na na O’Shaughnessy: Tiny Titans
YRC Worldwide Inc. YRCW 4.16 225.9 na na na O’Shaughnessy: Tiny Titans
iRobot Corporation IRBT 71.41 2,013.5 21.2 na na Buffettology: EPS Growth
Mastech Digital Inc. MHH 17.37 210.1 22.2 na na Buffettology: EPS Growth
Source: AAII Stock Investor Pro, Refinitiv and I/B/E/S. Data as of 9/4/2020.

 

Combining investment factors of value, growth and quality, the Buffett Hagstrom screen looks for stocks with, among other characteristics, a consistent operation history as measured by operating profits and return on equity (ROE) greater than 15% for the current period. The strategy also seeks stocks with operating margin and net profit margin greater than the respective industry medians to reflect Buffett’s preference for companies that have defensible market share.

Two of the companies passing the Buffett Hagstrom screen are Facebook Inc. (FB), the online social media and social networking service, and Medifast Inc. (MED), a nutritional products company focused on health and wellness. Both companies have A+ Stock Grades of A’s and B’s for the quality and growth investment factors.

PennyMac Financial Services Inc. (PFSI)—a U.S.-based financial services company—passed the Estimate Revisions Up 5% screen, which utilizes an approach to seek stocks with upward earnings estimate revisions. Of the passing companies in the table above, PennyMac Financial Services is among the top companies with the most investment factors with A+ Stock Grades of A’s or B’s. It has A’s for value, momentum, quality and earnings revisions and a B for growth.

The earnings revisions grade takes into consideration the magnitude of a company’s latest two earnings surprises as well as the percentage change in the current year’s consensus estimate over both the last month and last three months.

In addition to PennyMac Financial Services, two other top passing companies from members’ favorite screening strategies have at least five investment factor grades of A or B from A+ Stock Grades. One of the companies, Dicks Sporting Goods Inc. (DKS), an omni-channel sporting goods retailer, passes the Estimate Revisions Up 5% and Estimate Revisions Top 30 Up screens. The other company is homebuilder D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI), which passes the Inve$tWare Quality Growth screen.

By keeping an eye on the screening strategies that AAII’s A+ Investors are following, you have one more piece of the investment puzzle that may help aid your investment search.

Keep in mind that no matter how well a stock screening methodology has performed (or how badly it has underperformed) over the long term, stock screening is only the first step in the stock selection process. You will want to do your homework to see why these companies are at their current levels. Only then will you gain insight into those that will continue to languish and those that may eventually flourish.

The stocks meeting the criteria of the approach do not represent a “recommended” or “buy” list. It is important to perform due diligence to verify the financial strength of the passing companies and to identify those stocks that match your investing tolerances and constraints before committing your investment dollars. Keep in mind that the quantitative screens AAII has developed are based upon our interpretations of published works tied to the market gurus.

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