2011 Year-End Screening Review: A Difficult Year for Stocks and Strategies
After a strong rebound in 2010, the market has seen a muddled 2011. Economic concerns, both domestically and abroad, have had the market indexes on a yo-yo throughout the year. Fears persist of an economic collapse in Europe stemming from the Greek debt crisis, while here at home politicians on both sides of the aisle appear unable or unwilling to address unemployment and the federal debt leading into a presidential election year.
Year-to-date, through December 9, 2011, the S&P 500 is down 0.2% on a simple price-change basis, excluding dividends. If the index doesn’t inch into positive territory over the last weeks of 2011, it will break a two-year winning streak.
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This year has been equally difficult on the AAII stock screens. Of the 63 we track at AAII.com, only 24 are currently up for the year and outperformed the S&P 500 year-to-date. The median, or midpoint, price decline for all the screens is 3.8%, compared to a median price gain of 24.9% for the same set of screens in 2010.
Despite the relatively poor performance of the screens as a whole in 2011, one methodology—the T. Rowe Price screen—is having its best year ever since we started testing these strategies in 1998.
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