2013 Stock Screens Review: The Year of the Bulls

by Joe Lan, CFA

2013 Stock Screens Review: The Year Of The Bulls Splash image

As we approach another calendar year end, I can’t help but reflect on what an incredible year it’s been for the stock market.

Coming into this year, analysts were hoping for a positive 2013, but did not really know what to expect. Unemployment was still stubbornly high and, in addition, our economy was facing the possibility of across-the-board tax hikes in conjunction with automatic spending cuts, or sequestration. If you asked me then what the chances of the S&P 500 index gaining more than 25% for the year were, I would have said slim to none, leaning more toward none.

Now, as I am writing this, the major U.S. market indexes have all gained more than 25%, and we are merely a few weeks away from the end of the 2013 calendar year. The market has been in an upward trend for the entire year, with just some minor pullbacks. Market pullbacks during the year were almost always due to two specific reasons: weakness in the global economy, especially from a slowdown in emerging markets; and worries over the potential tapering of U.S. government stimulus measures. These concerns were at the forefront when the market dipped in mid-May. However, after concerns over tapering were alleviated, stocks began rallying again. In October, the market took another breather as the government “shut down” for 17 days due to our politicians’ inability to hammer out a nonpartisan budget deal. However, stocks were able to rebound once again shortly after the crisis was resolved.

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Joe Lan, CFA is a financial analyst at AAII.


Discussion

L Barnette from Washington posted 3 months ago:

table won't load - running Windows 7


L Barnette from Washington posted 3 months ago:

TABLE 1 WOULD NOT DOWNLOAD [USING WINDOWS 7 ON DELL DESKTOP]


D Seyk from California posted 3 months ago:

table will not load Using Windows 7


D Seyk from California posted 3 months ago:

go to the printable version for the complete article including the table


Jean Henrich from Illinois posted 3 months ago:

There is currently a glitch that occurs when opening Table 1 using the Microsoft Internet Explorer browser. We apologize for the problem and are working on a remedy. In the meantime, we are adding a direct link to download an Excel spreadsheet of the table. And, as D. Seyk noted, you can also click on "download printable PDF" under Print This Article on the left side of the page near the third paragraph of text. This will open the printed pages version of the entire article, which you can view onscreen or print.
-Jean, AAII


Raymond Zirkle from Georgia posted 3 months ago:

Click on the link in the print box to open the entire table. I did this on my I Pad. You can print then entire table then.


Jeff Goodwin from California posted 3 months ago:

re: Table 1

Using Firefox w/ linux, I get error message saying I need to allow a cookie - I'm not interested in finding out which one I have blocked but for those who want a cause, you may check it out.

Jeff G.


John Hawkins from Maryland posted 3 months ago:

I have a MacBook Air notebook which uses the Safari browser. I tried loading table one but was unsuccessful even after clicking the "allow" button on my preferences.


John Hawkins from Maryland posted 3 months ago:

I have a MacBook Air notebook which uses the Safari browser. I tried loading table one but was unsuccessful even after clicking the "allow" button on my preferences.

Update: I paged back and tried to look at table one again. This time it worked !! Sorry for the above alarm.


Kenneth Duhy from Florida posted 3 months ago:

Are the screens updated on a regular basis? If so what dates are they updated. I not that the current date is Sept. 30 - 90 days ago, not very current.


Werner Emmerich from Pennsylvania posted 3 months ago:

Everybody seems worried about the Tables. Many of the portfolios listed have been known for years to do well or badly. If you have been a member even for a short time and do your homework, you already know what's going on.


Jean Henrich from Illinois posted 3 months ago:

Performance of the AAII Stock Screens is updated once a month on the 15th of the month. Sign up to receive email notification at www.aaii.com/email. Data shown here is as of November 30 - the most current month-end data we had at the time the article went to press.

-Jean, AAII


James Bowen from Oregon posted 2 months ago:

This article does not delve into the true risks of investing in these stock screen portfolios. As a result, it does more disservice than positive service to the individual investor. I view this article more as a marketing effort to sell the stock screening program than as a true unbiased analysis of the pros and cons of each stock screen. Many of these stock screen portfolios suffer from a extremely limited number of stocks in the portfolio as well as thinly traded and volatile stock selections. Even the Investors Business Daily has used the performance of the stock screens as a marketing tool to sell their newspaper. The O'Neil stock screens deviate significantly from real O'Neil formula that they cannot be realistically be compared. When will AAII give us an unbiased analysis of these stock screens? Not any time soon, if it means lower sales of the stock screening program or AAII membership fees.


Jeffrey Hayes from Colorado posted 2 months ago:

Why is the Lowell Miller stock screen not among the stock screens covered (mentioned in the June 2013 AAII issue)?


Gene Falck from Maryland posted 2 months ago:

I am new to AAII. I just read the article (email) by Charles Rotblut about the Momentum Stocks with Low Prior-Year Valuations. It seems the point was to delay buying any of the stocks listed until 1 year after they pass the screens he used. Reviewing the list, I made a comparison between buying the list of stocks in Feb, 2013 vs at the low point between then and now. The average difference I come up with was about 17%: the raw average gain of all 25 stocks listed was 61% if bought in Feb, 2013 and 79% buying at the low point. However, I expect nobody could even come close to buying each stock at the low point - so is my thinking clear that there is no real benefit to waiting?

Next questions: Are the stock screens he used available to us lowly investors? Do I have to subscribe to Stock Investor Pro in order to get to the stock screens he used?


Charles Rotblut from Illinois posted about 1 month ago:

Hi Gene,

I used Stock Investor Pro to create the screen I discussed in my Investor Update newsletter. It is a custom screen that does not exist on AAII.com.

You will need Stock Investor Pro to recreate the screen, but you will also have the advantage of customizing the screen as you see fit.

-Charles


Gene Falck from Maryland posted about 1 month ago:

Thank you, Charles.


Cora from posted about 1 month ago:

What Canadian Exchange you have included in your data base (how many Canadian stocks)


Louis Lencioni from California posted about 1 month ago:


Louis Lencioni from California posted about 1 month ago:


Louis Lencioni from California posted about 1 month ago:


Louis Lencioni from California posted about 1 month ago:


Louis Lencioni from California posted about 1 month ago:


Louis Lencioni from California posted about 1 month ago:


Louis Lencioni from California posted about 1 month ago:


Denny Brya from Illinois posted 26 days ago:


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