Prior Bear Markets: A Poor Guide to Future Newsletter Performance
by Mark Hulbert
The stock bear market that began in October 2007 has been such a traumatic event in the lives of so many investors, that it is likely to dominate investment decision-making for years to come.
Whether that’s a good thing, however, is an open question—I’m not so sure that it is.
In this article
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That’s because performance in bear markets is a poor guide as to how an adviser or strategy will perform over the long term. And this is true not only because the stock market historically has had an upward bias. It’s also because performance in one bear market is a poor guide to returns in subsequent bear markets.
The Data
I support these bold claims with reference to the Hulbert Financial Digest’s database of investment newsletter performance. That database, of course, contains returns independently calculated by the Hulbert Financial Digest (HFD), using its standard methodology.
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